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Champions League
Referee: F Letexier
Benfica
S S U S S
0–1
Full-time
Real Madrid
S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
67%
83%
Points per game
2,2
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,0
4,2
Scored
2,0
3,0
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 12/8 matches
Win Ø 57%
50%
63%
Points per game
1,6
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
25%
75%
Both score Ø 40%
17%
63%
Average goals
2,3
4,1
Scored
1,3
2,6
Conceded
1,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,47 xG 0,89
42% Possession 58%
10 Shots 16
3 Shots on target 7
3 Blocked shots 5
6 Goalkeeper saves 3
3 Corners 6
1 Offside 1
6 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

28. Jan -26 Benfica – Real Madrid 4–2

Match report

Benfica Real Madrid
Half-time 0–1
50′
⚽ Vinicius Junior 0–1
K. Mbappe
51′
🟨 Vinícius Júnior
G. Sudakov 🔁
↦ A. Schjelderup
74′
R. Rios 🔁
↦ Rafa Silva
74′
Gianluca Prestianni 🟨
78′
S. Lopes Cabral 🔁
↦ F. Aursnes
80′
D. Lukebakio 🔁
↦ G. Prestianni
81′
86′
🔁 B. Diaz
↦ A. Guler
87′
🟨 Kylian Mbappé
Georgiy Sudakov 🟨
92′
94′
🔁 T. Pitarch
↦ E. Camavinga
99′
🔁 D. Carvajal
↦ A. Carreras
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Benfica

4-2-3-1
1 A. Trubin G
17 A. Dedic D
44 T. Araujo D
30 N. Otamendi D
26 S. Dahl D
18 L. Barreiro M
8 F. Aursnes M
25 G. Prestianni M
27 Rafa Silva M
21 A. Schjelderup M
14 V. Pavlidis F
Bench (12)
50 D. Ferreira
4 A. Silva
5 E. Barrenechea
6 A. Bah
7 Bruma
9 F. Ivanovic
10 G. Sudakov
11 D. Lukebakio
15 S. Lopes Cabral
16 Manu
20 R. Rios
72 Anisio

Coach: Jose Mourinho

Real Madrid

4-4-2
1 T. Courtois G
12 T. Alexander-Arnold D
22 A. Rudiger D
24 D. Huijsen D
18 A. Carreras D
8 F. Valverde M
15 A. Guler M
14 A. Tchouameni M
6 E. Camavinga M
10 K. Mbappe F
7 Vinicius Junior F
Bench (12)
13 A. Lunin
2 D. Carvajal
4 D. Alaba
16 G. Garcia
19 D. Ceballos
20 F. Garcia
21 B. Diaz
23 F. Mendy
28 J. Cestero Sancho
30 F. Mastantuono
36 J. Martinez
45 T. Pitarch

Coach: Alvaro Arbeloa

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

F Letexier · 176 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.