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La Liga

Referee: F Maeso

Real Madrid

S S T S S

4–1

Full-time

Sociedad

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Sociedad

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 83%

83%

Points per game

2,5

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,7

3,2

Scored

2,7

2,2

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 57%

78%

35%

Points per game

2,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

57%

Both score Ø 66%

48%

83%

Average goals

2,9

2,8

Scored

2,1

1,4

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

3,12 xG 1,73

52% Possession 48%

11 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 6

5 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 2. · Sociedad 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	23	19	1	3	+40	+30.0	58
2	Real Madrid	23	18	3	2	+31	+28.5	57
3	Ath Madrid	23	13	6	4	+20	+10.5	45
4	Villarreal	23	14	3	6	+18	+6.3	45
5	Betis	23	10	8	5	+9	+6.3	38
6	Espanol	24	10	5	9	-4	+1.3	35
7	Celta	24	8	10	6	+5	+2.9	34
8	Sociedad	23	8	7	8	+2	+0.8	31
9	Osasuna	24	8	6	10	+0	-5.0	30
10	Getafe	24	8	5	11	-8	-6.3	29
11	Ath Bilbao	23	8	4	11	-8	+6.7	28
12	Sevilla	24	7	5	12	-8	-14.0	26
13	Alaves	24	7	5	12	-9	-1.6	26
14	Girona	23	6	8	9	-15	-10.3	26
15	Elche	24	5	10	9	-4	-16.1	25
16	Mallorca	23	6	6	11	-9	-13.0	24
17	Valencia	23	5	8	10	-14	-1.6	23
18	Vallecano	22	5	7	10	-12	+0.0	22
19	Levante	22	4	6	12	-12	-9.1	18
20	Oviedo	22	3	7	12	-22	-16.4	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	11	11	0	0	+29	+18.0	33
2	Ath Madrid	12	10	1	1	+18	+13.8	31
3	Real Madrid	11	10	0	1	+18	+16.8	30
4	Villarreal	12	9	1	2	+17	+6.1	28
5	Betis	11	7	1	3	+10	+5.9	22
6	Osasuna	11	6	3	2	+7	+2.6	21
7	Elche	13	5	6	2	+7	-3.3	21
8	Sociedad	12	6	2	4	+4	+1.4	20
9	Ath Bilbao	12	6	2	4	+1	+8.1	20
10	Espanol	13	6	2	5	-2	-0.0	20
11	Mallorca	11	5	4	2	+4	+0.7	19
12	Alaves	12	5	3	4	+1	+1.5	18
13	Valencia	12	4	5	3	+2	+8.1	17
14	Getafe	12	4	3	5	+0	-3.1	15
15	Sevilla	13	4	3	6	-1	-4.1	15
16	Celta	12	3	5	4	+2	+2.9	14
17	Girona	11	3	4	4	-8	-7.7	13
18	Vallecano	10	2	6	2	-1	+5.4	12
19	Oviedo	11	2	5	4	-7	-8.4	11
20	Levante	10	1	4	5	-9	-5.4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	12	8	3	1	+13	+11.7	27
2	Barcelona	12	8	1	3	+11	+12.0	25
3	Celta	12	5	5	2	+3	+0.0	20
4	Villarreal	11	5	2	4	+1	+0.2	17
5	Betis	12	3	7	2	-1	+0.4	16
6	Espanol	11	4	3	4	-2	+1.3	15
7	Ath Madrid	11	3	5	3	+2	-3.4	14
8	Getafe	12	4	2	6	-8	-3.1	14
9	Girona	12	3	4	5	-7	-2.6	13
10	Sociedad	11	2	5	4	-2	-0.5	11
11	Levante	12	3	2	7	-3	-3.7	11
12	Sevilla	11	3	2	6	-7	-9.9	11
13	Vallecano	12	3	1	8	-11	-5.4	10
14	Osasuna	13	2	3	8	-7	-7.6	9
15	Ath Bilbao	11	2	2	7	-9	-1.4	8
16	Alaves	12	2	2	8	-10	-3.2	8
17	Valencia	11	1	3	7	-16	-9.7	6
18	Mallorca	12	1	2	9	-13	-13.7	5
19	Oviedo	11	1	2	8	-15	-8.0	5
20	Elche	11	0	4	7	-11	-12.8	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.