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Primeira Liga

Referee: B J Costa

Benfica

S T S S U

2–1

Full-time

Alverca

T S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Alverca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

0,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 50%

65%

35%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

60%

55%

Both score Ø 45%

45%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

2,1

1,0

Conceded

0,6

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,82 xG 1,14

64% Possession 36%

29 Shots 6

10 Shots on target 2

10 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 8

9 Corners 1

2 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 3. · Alverca 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	20	18	1	1	+35	+26.7	55
2	Sp Lisbon	20	16	3	1	+43	+30.9	51
3	Benfica	20	13	7	0	+31	+24.4	46
4	Sp Braga	21	11	6	4	+26	+20.5	39
5	Gil Vicente	21	10	7	4	+14	+7.9	37
6	Estoril	21	8	6	7	+8	-3.2	30
7	Moreirense	21	9	3	9	-2	-9.1	30
8	Famalicao	20	8	5	7	+5	+4.8	29
9	Guimaraes	21	8	4	9	-7	-3.9	28
10	Alverca	20	7	3	10	-14	-3.2	24
11	Estrela	21	5	8	8	-12	-9.9	23
12	Arouca	21	6	5	10	-20	-17.6	23
13	Nacional	21	5	6	10	-3	-6.5	21
14	Rio Ave	21	4	8	9	-19	-18.8	20
15	Casa Pia	21	4	7	10	-17	-19.9	19
16	Santa Clara	21	4	5	12	-10	+2.3	17
17	Tondela	21	3	5	13	-21	-7.8	14
18	AVS	20	0	5	15	-37	-17.6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	8	1	1	+28	+19.1	25
2	Porto	9	8	1	0	+17	+13.9	25
3	Benfica	10	6	4	0	+16	+14.9	22
4	Sp Braga	10	6	2	2	+15	+12.5	20
5	Gil Vicente	10	6	2	2	+10	+5.6	20
6	Estoril	11	5	4	2	+7	-1.0	19
7	Moreirense	10	6	1	3	+2	-4.1	19
8	Guimaraes	11	5	3	3	+1	-2.1	18
9	Alverca	11	5	2	4	-5	+4.1	17
10	Famalicao	10	4	2	4	+8	+4.1	14
11	Estrela	11	3	4	4	-3	+0.0	13
12	Arouca	11	3	3	5	-9	-7.9	12
13	Nacional	10	3	2	5	-1	-3.2	11
14	Santa Clara	11	3	2	6	-3	+3.6	11
15	Rio Ave	10	2	3	5	-8	-6.4	9
16	Casa Pia	10	1	5	4	-7	-10.8	8
17	Tondela	10	1	3	6	-7	-4.8	6
18	AVS	11	0	3	8	-16	-8.6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	11	10	0	1	+18	+12.8	30
2	Sp Lisbon	10	8	2	0	+15	+11.7	26
3	Benfica	10	7	3	0	+15	+9.5	24
4	Sp Braga	11	5	4	2	+11	+8.1	19
5	Gil Vicente	11	4	5	2	+4	+2.3	17
6	Famalicao	10	4	3	3	-3	+0.7	15
7	Estoril	10	3	2	5	+1	-2.2	11
8	Moreirense	11	3	2	6	-4	-5.0	11
9	Casa Pia	11	3	2	6	-10	-9.1	11
10	Arouca	10	3	2	5	-11	-9.7	11
11	Rio Ave	11	2	5	4	-11	-12.4	11
12	Nacional	11	2	4	5	-2	-3.3	10
13	Guimaraes	10	3	1	6	-8	-1.8	10
14	Estrela	10	2	4	4	-9	-9.9	10
15	Tondela	11	2	2	7	-14	-3.0	8
16	Alverca	9	2	1	6	-9	-7.4	7
17	Santa Clara	10	1	3	6	-7	-1.3	6
18	AVS	9	0	2	7	-21	-9.0	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.