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Champions League
Referee: D Siebert
Sp Lisbon
U T S S S
0–1
Full-time
Arsenal
U S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Arsenal
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
4,0
2,3
Scored
2,7
1,3
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 10/10 matches
Win Ø 75%
60%
90%
Points per game
1,9
2,8
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
90%
60%
Both score Ø 55%
70%
40%
Average goals
3,6
3,1
Scored
2,2
2,6
Conceded
1,4
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+2,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,71 xG 1,33
44% Possession 56%
11 Shots 8
5 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 5
3 Corners 4
2 Offside 2
11 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

26. Nov -24 Sp Lisbon – Arsenal 1–5 16. Mar -23 Arsenal – Sp Lisbon 1–1 9. Mar -23 Sp Lisbon – Arsenal 2–2

Match report

Sp Lisbon Arsenal
Hidemasa Morita 🟨
31′
Half-time 0–0
D. Braganca 🔁
↦ J. Simoes
62′
64′
ℹ️ Martín Zubimendi
VAR: Goal cancelled
70′
🔁 K. Havertz
↦ M. Odegaard
76′
🔁 G. Martinelli
↦ L. Trossard
76′
🔁 M. Dowman
↦ N. Madueke
R. Nel 🔁
↦ P. Goncalves
79′
90′
⚽ K. Havertz 0–1
G. Martinelli
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Sp Lisbon

4-2-3-1
1 R. Silva G
22 I. Fresneda D
26 O. Diomande D
25 G. Inacio D
20 M. Araujo D
5 H. Morita M
52 J. Simoes M
10 G. Catamo M
17 Trincao M
8 P. Goncalves M
97 L. Suarez F
Bench (11)
12 J. Virginia
41 Diego Callai
14 G. Kochorashvili
23 D. Braganca
72 E. Quaresma
15 S. Faye
90 R. Nel
58 F. Goncalves
91 R. Mangas
13 G. Vagiannidis
6 Z. Debast

Coach: Rui Borges

Arsenal

4-3-3
1 D. Raya G
4 B. White D
2 W. Saliba D
6 Gabriel D
33 R. Calafiori D
8 M. Odegaard M
36 M. Zubimendi M
41 D. Rice M
20 N. Madueke F
14 V. Gyökeres F
19 L. Trossard F
Bench (11)
13 K. Arrizabalaga
79 K. Ranson
9 Gabriel Jesus
29 K. Havertz
11 G. Martinelli
49 M. Lewis-Skelly
3 C. Mosquera
56 M. Dowman
71 A. Harriman-Annous
89 M. Salmon
16 C. Norgaard

Coach: Mikel Arteta

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Siebert · 158 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.