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Europa League
Referee: D Massa
AEK Larnaca
U U S U S
3–0
Full-time
Dnipro-1
T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AEK Larnaca Dnipro-1
Last 6 — all competitions · 5/1 matches
Win Ø 20%
40%
0%
Points per game
1,8
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 80%
60%
100%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
2,8
3,0
Scored
1,6
1,0
Conceded
1,2
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,4
-1,0
This season — Europa League · 3/1 matches
Win Ø 34%
67%
0%
Points per game
2,3
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
3,3
3,0
Scored
2,0
1,0
Conceded
1,3
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Recent head-to-head meetings

18. Aug -22 Dnipro-1 – AEK Larnaca 1–2

Match report

AEK Larnaca Dnipro-1
13′
🟨 Sergii Loginov
1–0 Á. Gyurcsó ⚽
Mikel González
21′
42′
🟨 Ruslan Babenko
2–0 Rafael Lopes ⚽
Oier
45′
Half-time 2–0
58′
🔁 O. Nazarenko
↦ O. Gutsulyak
Gus Ledes 🟨
61′
69′
🔁 I. Kogut
↦ A. Gromov
73′
🔁 V. Rubchynskyi
↦ S. Loginov
Rafael Lopes 🟨
74′
V. Olatunji 🔁
↦ Rafael Lopes
74′
R. Mamas 🔁
↦ I. Faraj
74′
Ángel García 🔁
↦ O. Altman
74′
3–0 N. Englezou ⚽
Á. Gyurcsó
78′
G. Naoum 🔁
↦ Á. Gyurcsó
83′
Bruno Gama 🔁
↦ N. Englezou
87′
Ángel García 🟨
91′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

AEK Larnaca

4-2-1-3
1 K. Pirić G
16 R. Rosales D
15 H. Miličević D
3 Mikel González D
21 N. Englezou M
6 Oier M
7 Gus Ledes M
51 O. Altman M
11 I. Faraj F
12 Rafael Lopes F
45 Á. Gyurcsó M
Bench (11)
19 V. Olatunji
66 R. Mamas
14 Ángel García
29 G. Naoum
8 Bruno Gama
38 I. Toumpas
9 J. Romo
5 Ismael Casas
24 K. Christoforou
30 H. Andreou
40 D. Stylianidis

Coach: José Luis Oltra

Dnipro-1

4-2-3-1
93 Max Walef G
11 A. Gromov F
39 O. Svatok D
15 S. Loginov D
6 Busanello D
23 D. Blanco M
18 R. Babenko M
9 O. Gutsulyak F
8 O. Pikhalyonok M
34 V. Tanchyk M
7 A. Dovbyk F
Bench (6)
29 O. Nazarenko
25 I. Kogut
22 V. Rubchynskyi
1 V. Rybak
2 M. Kononov
33 V. Yurchuk

Coach: O. Kucher

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Massa · 154 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.