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Europa League
Referee: F Letexier
Roma
U S U S S
4–0
Full-time
Brighton
T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Brighton
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,8
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,8
3,2
Scored
2,3
1,8
Conceded
1,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 8/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,9
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 36%
38%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,5
2,5
Scored
1,8
1,7
Conceded
0,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,98 xG 1,03
41% Possession 59%
14 Shots 11
7 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 6
3 Offside 1
5 Free kicks against 8
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Roma Brighton
1–0 P. Dybala ⚽
L. Paredes
13′
Paulo Dybala ℹ️
VAR: Goal confirmed
14′
38′
🟨 Jan Paul van Hecke
2–0 R. Lukaku ⚽
43′
Half-time 2–0
46′
🔁 Ansu Fati
↦ J. Enciso
Leonardo Spinazzola 🟨
61′
3–0 G. Mancini ⚽
S. El Shaarawy
64′
67′
🟨 Tariq Lamptey
4–0 B. Cristante ⚽
S. El Shaarawy
68′
T. Baldanzi 🔁
↦ P. Dybala
72′
E. Bove 🔁
↦ L. Paredes
72′
75′
🔁 P. Estupiñán
↦ Igor Julio
75′
🔁 J. Veltman
↦ F. Buonanotte
81′
🔁 E. Ferguson
↦ D. Welbeck
81′
🔁 C. Baleba
↦ B. Gilmour
Diego Llorente 🔁
↦ L. Spinazzola
82′
S. Azmoun 🔁
↦ R. Lukaku
88′
N. Zalewski 🔁
↦ S. El Shaarawy
88′
Full-time 4–0

Line-ups

Roma

4-3-3
99 M. Svilar G
19 Z. Çelik D
23 G. Mancini D
5 E. Ndicka D
37 L. Spinazzola D
4 B. Cristante M
16 L. Paredes M
7 L. Pellegrini M
21 P. Dybala F
90 R. Lukaku F
92 S. El Shaarawy F
Bench (12)
35 T. Baldanzi
52 E. Bove
14 Diego Llorente
17 S. Azmoun
59 N. Zalewski
22 H. Aouar
6 C. Smalling
1 Rui Patrício
2 R. Karsdorp
63 P. Boer
69 Angeliño
20 Renato Sanches

Coach: D. De Rossi

Brighton

4-2-3-1
23 J. Steele G
2 T. Lamptey D
29 J. van Hecke D
5 L. Dunk D
3 Igor Julio D
11 B. Gilmour M
13 P. Groß M
40 F. Buonanotte M
10 J. Enciso M
24 S. Adingra M
18 D. Welbeck F
Bench (12)
31 Ansu Fati
30 P. Estupiñán
34 J. Veltman
28 E. Ferguson
20 C. Baleba
14 A. Lallana
38 T. McGill
15 J. Moder
1 B. Verbruggen
4 A. Webster
47 B. Baker-Boaitey
44 C. Peupion

Coach: R. De Zerbi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

F Letexier · 176 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.