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Serie A

Referee: M Piccinini

Monza

S U U S S

1–4

Full-time

Roma

T U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monza Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,0

3,7

Scored

1,2

2,3

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 43%

35%

50%

Points per game

1,4

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

35%

62%

Both score Ø 50%

38%

62%

Average goals

2,2

3,1

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,89 xG 1,84

49% Possession 51%

16 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monza 11. · Roma 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	26	22	3	1	+55	+36.6	69
2	Juventus	26	17	6	3	+22	+22.7	57
3	Milan	27	17	5	5	+19	+8.6	56
4	Bologna	26	13	9	4	+16	+7.1	48
5	Atalanta	26	14	4	8	+20	+11.5	46
6	Roma	26	13	5	8	+16	+11.9	44
7	Fiorentina	26	12	5	9	+9	+1.0	41
8	Napoli	26	11	7	8	+10	+16.9	40
9	Lazio	27	12	4	11	+3	+0.3	40
10	Torino	26	9	9	8	+0	+2.9	36
11	Monza	26	9	9	8	-3	-8.7	36
12	Genoa	26	8	9	9	-3	-4.2	33
13	Empoli	26	6	7	13	-18	-8.4	25
14	Udinese	27	3	15	9	-15	-6.5	24
15	Lecce	26	5	9	12	-19	-13.2	24
16	Frosinone	26	6	5	15	-21	-12.9	23
17	Verona	26	4	8	14	-13	-9.4	20
18	Sassuolo	26	5	5	16	-22	-14.1	20
19	Cagliari	26	4	8	14	-23	-10.9	20
20	Salernitana	27	2	8	17	-33	-31.1	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bologna	14	11	2	1	+19	+6.5	35
2	Inter	13	11	1	1	+28	+22.6	34
3	Atalanta	13	10	1	2	+22	+12.1	31
4	Roma	14	9	3	2	+18	+10.1	30
5	Juventus	13	9	3	1	+12	+13.6	30
6	Milan	13	9	2	2	+14	+6.7	29
7	Fiorentina	13	8	2	3	+11	+6.3	26
8	Torino	13	6	5	2	+6	+7.6	23
9	Lazio	13	6	3	4	+3	+5.3	21
10	Monza	13	5	5	3	+3	-3.1	20
11	Genoa	13	5	5	3	+1	-1.9	20
12	Frosinone	13	6	2	5	+0	-1.0	20
13	Lecce	13	5	4	4	-6	-2.8	19
14	Napoli	12	5	3	4	+1	+9.3	18
15	Cagliari	13	4	4	5	-6	+2.5	16
16	Verona	12	3	5	4	-2	-2.0	14
17	Udinese	14	1	9	4	-4	+2.6	12
18	Sassuolo	13	3	3	7	-8	-4.5	12
19	Empoli	13	2	4	7	-9	-3.6	10
20	Salernitana	14	1	4	9	-16	-11.5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	13	11	2	0	+27	+14.0	35
2	Juventus	13	8	3	2	+10	+9.1	27
3	Milan	14	8	3	3	+5	+1.9	27
4	Napoli	14	6	4	4	+9	+7.6	22
5	Lazio	14	6	1	7	+0	-5.0	19
6	Monza	13	4	4	5	-6	-5.6	16
7	Atalanta	13	4	3	6	-2	-0.6	15
8	Fiorentina	13	4	3	6	-2	-5.3	15
9	Empoli	13	4	3	6	-9	-4.8	15
10	Roma	12	4	2	6	-2	+1.8	14
11	Bologna	12	2	7	3	-3	+0.6	13
12	Genoa	13	3	4	6	-4	-2.3	13
13	Torino	13	3	4	6	-6	-4.7	13
14	Udinese	13	2	6	5	-11	-9.1	12
15	Sassuolo	13	2	2	9	-14	-9.6	8
16	Salernitana	13	1	4	8	-17	-19.6	7
17	Verona	14	1	3	10	-11	-7.4	6
18	Lecce	13	0	5	8	-13	-10.4	5
19	Cagliari	13	0	4	9	-17	-13.4	4
20	Frosinone	13	0	3	10	-21	-11.9	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.