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Europa League
Referee: H Meler
Milan
S T T U S
4–2
Full-time
Slavia Praha
S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Slavia Praha
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
1,7
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
3,0
3,5
Scored
1,7
2,8
Conceded
1,3
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+2,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 2/10 matches
Win Ø 60%
50%
70%
Points per game
1,5
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
100%
50%
Both score Ø 40%
50%
30%
Average goals
4,0
3,1
Scored
2,5
2,4
Conceded
1,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

2,47 xG 0,49
65% Possession 35%
20 Shots 8
9 Shots on target 2
6 Blocked shots 3
0 Goalkeeper saves 4
8 Corners 4
8 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 1

Match report

Milan Slavia Praha
Alessandro Florenzi 🟨
2′
26′
🟥 El Hadji Malick Diouf
1–0 O. Giroud ⚽
34′
36′
⚽ D. Douděra 1–1
2–1 T. Reijnders ⚽
A. Florenzi
44′
Half-time 3–1
3–1 R. Loftus-Cheek ⚽
A. Florenzi
46′
F. Tomori 🔁
↦ M. Gabbia
46′
D. Calabria 🔁
↦ A. Florenzi
46′
61′
🔁 I. Schranz
↦ M. Chytil
65′
⚽ I. Schranz 3–2
L. Jović 🔁
↦ R. Loftus-Cheek
66′
Davide Calabria 🟨
72′
N. Okafor 🔁
↦ O. Giroud
80′
I. Bennacer 🔁
↦ T. Reijnders
80′
83′
🔁 V. Jurečka
↦ L. Provod
83′
🔁 J. Bořil
↦ O. Zmrzlý
4–2 C. Pulišić ⚽
Rafael Leão
85′
86′
🔁 M. Tomič
↦ D. Douděra
87′
🔁 C. Wallem
↦ L. Masopust
Full-time 4–2

Line-ups

Milan

4-2-3-1
16 M. Maignan G
42 A. Florenzi D
24 S. Kjær D
46 M. Gabbia D
19 T. Hernández D
7 Y. Adli M
14 T. Reijnders M
11 C. Pulišić M
8 R. Loftus-Cheek M
10 Rafael Leão M
9 O. Giroud F
Bench (12)
23 F. Tomori
2 D. Calabria
15 L. Jović
17 N. Okafor
4 I. Bennacer
20 P. Kalulu
28 M. Thiaw
83 A. Mirante
21 S. Chukwueze
80 Y. Musah
38 F. Terracciano
57 M. Sportiello

Coach: S. Pioli

Slavia Praha

4-2-3-1
36 J. Staněk G
27 T. Vlček D
3 T. Holeš D
4 D. Zima D
12 E. Diouf D
8 L. Masopust M
19 O. Dorley M
21 D. Douděra M
17 L. Provod M
33 O. Zmrzlý M
13 M. Chytil F
Bench (12)
26 I. Schranz
15 V. Jurečka
18 J. Bořil
29 M. Tomič
6 C. Wallem
35 M. Jurásek
5 I. Ogbu
9 M. Tijani
28 A. Mandous
31 J. Sirotník
43 M. Konečný
14 M. van Buren

Coach: J. Trpišovský

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

H Meler · 115 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,34 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.