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Premier League
Referee: Anthony Taylor
Man City
S T S S T
4–0
Full-time
Liverpool
S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Liverpool
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 25%
17%
33%
Average goals
2,7
2,7
Scored
2,0
1,7
Conceded
0,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+0,7
This season — Premier League · 31/31 matches
Win Ø 78%
65%
90%
Points per game
2,0
2,8
Over 2.5 Ø 71%
74%
68%
Both score Ø 52%
52%
52%
Average goals
3,5
2,9
Scored
2,5
2,3
Conceded
1,1
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,4
+1,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

47% Possession 53%
14 Shots 11
6 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 6
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 3
3 Offside 2
8 Free kicks against 7
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Man City 2. · Liverpool 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Liverpool 31 28 2 1 +49 86
2 Man City 31 20 3 8 +44 63
3 Leicester 32 16 7 9 +29 55
4 Chelsea 32 16 6 10 +13 54
5 Man United 32 14 10 8 +20 52
6 Wolves 32 13 13 6 +11 52
7 Sheffield United 32 12 11 9 +1 47
8 Arsenal 32 11 13 8 +6 46
9 Tottenham 32 12 9 11 +7 45
10 Burnley 32 13 6 13 -9 45
11 Everton 32 12 8 12 -7 44
12 Crystal Palace 32 11 9 12 -9 42
13 Newcastle 32 11 9 12 -10 42
14 Southampton 32 12 4 16 -14 40
15 Brighton 32 7 12 13 -10 33
16 West Ham 32 8 6 18 -18 30
17 Watford 32 6 10 16 -20 28
18 Aston Villa 32 7 6 19 -24 27
19 Bournemouth 32 7 6 19 -24 27
20 Norwich 32 5 6 21 -35 21

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Man City Liverpool
24′
🟨 Joe Gomez
1–0 K. De Bruyne
25′
2–0 R. Sterling
P. Foden
35′
Benjamin Mendy 🟨
41′
3–0 P. Foden
K. De Bruyne
45′
Half-time 3–0
46′
🔁 A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
↦ J. Gomez
Kyle Walker 🟨
56′
R. Mahrez 🔁
↦ Gabriel Jesus
58′
62′
🔁 D. Origi
↦ Roberto Firmino
62′
🔁 N. Keïta
↦ G. Wijnaldum
3–1 A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
own goal
66′
João Cancelo 🔁
↦ K. Walker
73′
76′
🔁 N. Williams
↦ T. Alexander-Arnold
Bernardo Silva 🔁
↦ R. Sterling
79′
N. Otamendi 🔁
↦ A. Laporte
79′
85′
🔁 T. Minamino
↦ S. Mané
90′
🟨 Jordan Henderson
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Man City

4-2-3-1
31 Ederson Moraes G
2 K. Walker D
22 B. Mendy D
14 A. Laporte D
50 Eric García D
8 İ. Gündoğan M
17 K. De Bruyne M
16 Rodri M
47 P. Foden M
7 R. Sterling M
9 Gabriel Jesus F
Bench (9)
26 R. Mahrez
27 João Cancelo
20 Bernardo Silva
30 N. Otamendi
21 David Silva
69 T. Doyle
1 C. Bravo
5 J. Stones
11 O. Zinchenko

Coach: Guardiola

Liverpool

4-3-3
1 Alisson G
4 V. van Dijk D
26 A. Robertson D
12 J. Gomez D
66 T. Alexander-Arnold D
5 G. Wijnaldum M
14 J. Henderson M
3 Fabinho M
9 Roberto Firmino F
11 Mohamed Salah F
10 S. Mané F
Bench (9)
15 A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
27 D. Origi
8 N. Keïta
76 N. Williams
18 T. Minamino
67 H. Elliott
48 C. Jones
7 J. Milner
13 Adrián

Coach: J. Klopp

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,07
U
3,85
B
3,32
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,57
U2,5
2,42
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Anthony Taylor · 162 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
18,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.