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Europa League
Referee: C Turpin
Milan
S S S S S
0–1
Full-time
Roma
U T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Roma
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
100%
50%
Points per game
3,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
67%
17%
Average goals
3,5
1,8
Scored
2,7
1,3
Conceded
0,8
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 4/10 matches
Win Ø 63%
75%
50%
Points per game
2,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 70%
100%
40%
Both score Ø 58%
75%
40%
Average goals
4,5
2,5
Scored
3,0
1,8
Conceded
1,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+1,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,61 xG 0,62
53% Possession 47%
25 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 3
11 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 5
9 Corners 3
14 Free kicks against 8
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

14. Jan -24 Milan – Roma 3–1 1. Sep -23 Roma – Milan 1–2 29. Apr -23 Roma – Milan 1–1 8. Jan -23 Milan – Roma 2–2 6. Jan -22 Milan – Roma 3–1

Match report

Milan Roma
17′
⚽ G. Mancini 0–1
P. Dybala
Christian Pulišić 🟨
33′
38′
🟨 Bryan Cristante
Half-time 0–1
Y. Adli 🔁
↦ I. Bennacer
59′
Yacine Adli 🟨
63′
Ruben Loftus-Cheek 🟨
73′
S. Chukwueze 🔁
↦ C. Pulišić
78′
N. Okafor 🔁
↦ Rafael Leão
78′
81′
🔁 T. Abraham
↦ P. Dybala
89′
🔁 H. Aouar
↦ L. Pellegrini
89′
🔁 E. Bove
↦ L. Paredes
92′
🔁 Diego Llorente
↦ R. Lukaku
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Milan

4-2-3-1
16 M. Maignan G
2 D. Calabria D
46 M. Gabbia D
28 M. Thiaw D
19 T. Hernández D
4 I. Bennacer M
14 T. Reijnders M
11 C. Pulišić M
8 R. Loftus-Cheek M
10 Rafael Leão M
9 O. Giroud F
Bench (12)
7 Y. Adli
21 S. Chukwueze
17 N. Okafor
95 D. Bartesaghi
15 L. Jović
38 F. Terracciano
57 M. Sportiello
85 K. Zeroli
24 S. Kjær
80 Y. Musah
42 A. Florenzi
69 L. Nava

Coach: S. Pioli

Roma

4-3-3
99 M. Svilar G
19 Z. Çelik D
6 C. Smalling D
23 G. Mancini D
37 L. Spinazzola D
4 B. Cristante M
16 L. Paredes M
7 L. Pellegrini M
92 S. El Shaarawy F
90 R. Lukaku F
21 P. Dybala F
Bench (12)
9 T. Abraham
22 H. Aouar
52 E. Bove
14 Diego Llorente
59 N. Zalewski
67 João Costa
69 Angeliño
20 Renato Sanches
63 P. Boer
2 R. Karsdorp
1 Rui Patrício
35 T. Baldanzi

Coach: D. De Rossi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

C Turpin · 184 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.