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Eredivisie

Referee: E van de Graaf

NAC Breda

T T U S S

1–2

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

S U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

NAC Breda AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 15/14 matches

Win Ø 49%

47%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

53%

64%

Both score Ø 49%

40%

57%

Average goals

2,7

2,4

Scored

1,1

1,4

Conceded

1,5

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,73 xG 1,45

35% Possession 65%

4 Shots 15

2 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 7

1 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 9

5 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match NAC Breda 9. · AZ Alkmaar 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	16	14	0	2	+43	+23.4	42
2	Ajax	16	11	3	2	+19	+10.4	36
3	Utrecht	16	11	3	2	+9	+1.1	36
4	Feyenoord	16	10	5	1	+22	+18.2	35
5	Twente	16	9	4	3	+12	+12.6	31
6	AZ Alkmaar	14	7	2	5	+4	+6.5	23
7	Go Ahead Eagles	16	6	4	6	+2	+7.9	22
8	For Sittard	16	6	4	6	-3	+1.7	22
9	NAC Breda	15	7	1	7	-6	-5.6	22
10	Heerenveen	15	6	3	6	-3	-2.3	21
11	Willem II	16	5	4	7	-1	-12.3	19
12	Nijmegen	16	5	2	9	+2	+3.8	17
13	Zwolle	16	4	4	8	-10	-11.6	16
14	Groningen	16	4	4	8	-12	-11.6	16
15	Heracles	16	3	5	8	-15	-13.3	14
16	Sparta Rotterdam	16	2	6	8	-10	+0.2	12
17	Waalwijk	16	1	3	12	-23	-16.8	6
18	Almere City	16	1	3	12	-30	-12.3	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	8	7	1	0	+15	+9.6	22
2	PSV Eindhoven	7	7	0	0	+26	+13.5	21
3	Twente	8	5	3	0	+11	+10.8	18
4	Heerenveen	8	5	3	0	+9	+4.6	18
5	Feyenoord	8	5	2	1	+8	+10.4	17
6	Utrecht	8	5	1	2	+0	+3.9	16
7	For Sittard	8	5	0	3	+3	+4.5	15
8	NAC Breda	7	5	0	2	+3	+1.0	15
9	Go Ahead Eagles	8	4	2	2	+7	+10.7	14
10	Groningen	8	3	3	2	+4	-0.3	12
11	Zwolle	8	4	0	4	+0	-0.8	12
12	Nijmegen	9	3	2	4	+6	+7.4	11
13	Heracles	8	2	4	2	+0	-0.6	10
14	AZ Alkmaar	7	3	1	3	+0	+5.5	10
15	Willem II	8	2	2	4	+0	-3.6	8
16	Sparta Rotterdam	8	0	4	4	-7	+3.7	4
17	Waalwijk	8	1	1	6	-9	-7.1	4
18	Almere City	8	1	1	6	-17	-3.1	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	7	0	2	+17	+9.9	21
2	Utrecht	8	6	2	0	+9	-2.8	20
3	Feyenoord	8	5	3	0	+14	+7.8	18
4	Ajax	8	4	2	2	+4	+0.8	14
5	AZ Alkmaar	7	4	1	2	+4	+1.0	13
6	Twente	8	4	1	3	+1	+1.7	13
7	Willem II	8	3	2	3	-1	-8.7	11
8	Sparta Rotterdam	8	2	2	4	-3	-3.6	8
9	Go Ahead Eagles	8	2	2	4	-5	-2.8	8
10	For Sittard	8	1	4	3	-6	-2.8	7
11	NAC Breda	8	2	1	5	-9	-6.6	7
12	Nijmegen	7	2	0	5	-4	-3.6	6
13	Zwolle	8	0	4	4	-10	-10.9	4
14	Heracles	8	1	1	6	-15	-12.7	4
15	Groningen	8	1	1	6	-16	-11.2	4
16	Heerenveen	7	1	0	6	-12	-6.9	3
17	Almere City	8	0	2	6	-13	-9.2	2
18	Waalwijk	8	0	2	6	-14	-9.7	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.