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Europa League
Referee: S Schärer
Roma
U S S S S
2–1
Full-time
Ath Bilbao
U S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Ath Bilbao
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
83%
50%
Points per game
2,7
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,7
3,7
Scored
2,0
2,7
Conceded
0,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+1,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 10/8 matches
Win Ø 58%
40%
75%
Points per game
1,6
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
30%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,3
2,8
Scored
1,4
1,9
Conceded
0,9
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,20 xG 1,19
59% Possession 41%
12 Shots 16
5 Shots on target 1
3 Blocked shots 4
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
1 Corners 3
1 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 15
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

26. Sep -24 Roma – Ath Bilbao 1–1

Match report

Roma Ath Bilbao
19′
🟨 Yeray Álvarez
23′
🔁 Aitor Paredes
↦ Dani Vivian
34′
🟨 Mikel Jauregizar
39′
🟨 Maroan Sannadi
Half-time 0–1
50′
⚽ I. Williams 0–1
Aitor Paredes
1–1 Angeliño ⚽
Z. Çelik
56′
S. El Shaarawy 🔁
↦ T. Baldanzi
60′
A. Saelemaekers 🔁
↦ D. Rensch
60′
63′
🔁 Beñat Prados
↦ Maroan Sannadi
63′
🔁 Gorka Guruzeta
↦ Mikel Jauregizar
E. Shomurodov 🔁
↦ A. Dovbyk
71′
M. Soulé 🔁
↦ P. Dybala
71′
Eldor Shomurodov 🟨
72′
M. Koné 🔁
↦ N. Pisilli
77′
77′
🔁 Mikel Vesga
↦ Unai Gómez
77′
🔁 Álex Berenguer
↦ Nico Williams
85′
🟨 Yeray Álvarez
85′
🟥 Yeray Álvarez
2–1 E. Shomurodov ⚽
A. Saelemaekers
93′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Roma

3-4-2-1
99 M. Svilar G
19 Z. Çelik D
23 G. Mancini D
5 E. Ndicka D
2 D. Rensch M
61 N. Pisilli M
4 B. Cristante M
3 Angeliño M
21 P. Dybala F
35 T. Baldanzi F
11 A. Dovbyk F
Bench (12)
92 S. El Shaarawy
56 A. Saelemaekers
14 E. Shomurodov
18 M. Soulé
17 M. Koné
66 Buba Sangaré
70 G. De Marzi
95 P. Gollini
12 Saud Abdulhamid
15 M. Hummels
25 V. Nelsson
7 L. Pellegrini

Coach: C. Ranieri

Ath Bilbao

4-2-3-1
13 Julen Agirrezabala G
18 De Marcos D
3 Dani Vivian D
5 Yeray D
17 Yuri D
23 Mikel Jauregizar M
16 Ruíz de Galarreta M
9 I. Williams M
20 Unai Gómez M
10 Nico Williams M
21 Maroan Sannadi F
Bench (12)
4 Aitor Paredes
24 Beñat Prados
12 Gorka Guruzeta
6 Mikel Vesga
7 Álex Berenguer
8 Oihan Sancet
14 Unai Núñez
2 Andoni Gorosabel
15 Lekue
1 Unai Simón
32 Adama Boiro
28 Peio Canales

Coach: Ernesto Valverde

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Schärer · 129 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.