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Europa League
Referee: D Siebert
Man United
S T U S T
4–1
Full-time
Ath Bilbao
S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Ath Bilbao
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
67%
17%
Average goals
4,5
1,8
Scored
2,2
1,0
Conceded
2,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 13/13 matches
Win Ø 62%
62%
62%
Points per game
2,2
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
62%
54%
Both score Ø 62%
77%
46%
Average goals
3,7
2,6
Scored
2,4
1,6
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,1
+0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,19 xG 0,81
51% Possession 49%
11 Shots 11
5 Shots on target 1
4 Blocked shots 5
0 Goalkeeper saves 1
0 Corners 2
2 Offside 0
10 Free kicks against 17
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

1. May -25 Ath Bilbao – Man United 0–3

Match report

Man United Ath Bilbao
Noussair Mazraoui 🟨
25′
31′
⚽ Mikel Jauregizar 0–1
39′
🟨 Mikel Jauregizar
Half-time 0–1
Casemiro 🟨
59′
61′
🔁 Beñat Prados
↦ Ruíz de Galarreta
61′
🔁 De Marcos
↦ Andoni Gorosabel
L. Shaw 🔁
↦ N. Mazraoui
62′
M. Mount 🔁
↦ M. Ugarte
62′
62′
🔁 Aingeru Olabarrieta
↦ Álvaro Djaló
A. Diallo 🔁
↦ A. Garnacho
63′
67′
🔁 Gorka Guruzeta
↦ Unai Gómez
1–1 M. Mount ⚽
L. Yoro
72′
73′
🔁 Mikel Vesga
↦ Beñat Prados
78′
🟨 Álex Berenguer
78′
🟨 Unai Núñez
2–1 Casemiro ⚽
Bruno Fernandes
79′
K. Mainoo 🔁
↦ Casemiro
81′
H. Amass 🔁
↦ V. Lindelöf
81′
3–1 R. Højlund ⚽
A. Diallo
85′
89′
🟨 Maroan Sannadi
Patrick Dorgu 🟨
91′
4–1 M. Mount ⚽
91′
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Man United

3-4-2-1
24 A. Onana G
2 V. Lindelöf D
5 H. Maguire D
15 L. Yoro D
3 N. Mazraoui M
25 M. Ugarte M
18 Casemiro M
13 P. Dorgu M
17 A. Garnacho F
8 Bruno Fernandes F
9 R. Højlund F
Bench (11)
23 L. Shaw
7 M. Mount
16 A. Diallo
37 K. Mainoo
41 H. Amass
14 C. Eriksen
22 T. Heaton
1 A. Bayındır
85 B. Mantato
80 J. Kamason
55 T. Fredricson

Coach: Ruben Amorim

Ath Bilbao

4-2-3-1
13 Julen Agirrezabala G
2 Andoni Gorosabel D
5 Yeray D
14 Unai Núñez D
17 Yuri D
16 Ruíz de Galarreta M
23 Mikel Jauregizar M
11 Álvaro Djaló M
7 Álex Berenguer M
20 Unai Gómez M
21 Maroan Sannadi F
Bench (12)
24 Beñat Prados
18 De Marcos
33 Aingeru Olabarrieta
12 Gorka Guruzeta
6 Mikel Vesga
39 Iker Varela
1 Unai Simón
28 Peio Canales
15 Lekue
35 Alejandro Rego
4 Aitor Paredes
32 Adama Boiro

Coach: Ernesto Valverde

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Siebert · 158 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.