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La Liga
Referee: Isidro Díaz de Mera
Ath Bilbao
U U S S T
1–0
Full-time
Las Palmas
U U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Las Palmas
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,5
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
17%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
17%
67%
Average goals
1,2
2,7
Scored
0,8
1,3
Conceded
0,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 32/32 matches
Win Ø 36%
47%
25%
Points per game
1,8
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 49%
41%
56%
Both score Ø 66%
59%
72%
Average goals
2,3
2,8
Scored
1,5
1,2
Conceded
0,8
1,6
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,11 xG 1,05
49% Possession 51%
13 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
3 Corners 3
4 Offside 2
13 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ath Bilbao 4. · Las Palmas 17.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Barcelona 33 24 4 5 +57 +43.2 76
2 Real Madrid 32 21 6 5 +34 +28.4 69
3 Ath Madrid 32 18 9 5 +26 +22.5 63
4 Ath Bilbao 32 15 12 5 +23 +15.2 57
5 Villarreal 31 14 10 7 +13 +19.5 52
6 Betis 32 14 9 9 +5 +9.8 51
7 Mallorca 33 12 8 13 -7 -2.1 44
8 Celta 32 12 7 13 -2 +9.4 43
9 Sociedad 32 12 6 14 -4 +0.4 42
10 Vallecano 32 10 11 11 -4 -3.0 41
11 Osasuna 32 9 14 9 -7 -8.3 41
12 Getafe 32 10 9 13 +2 -5.7 39
13 Espanol 32 10 9 13 -6 -21.2 39
14 Valencia 33 9 12 12 -12 -8.1 39
15 Sevilla 32 9 10 13 -8 -8.6 37
16 Girona 32 9 7 16 -12 -4.6 34
17 Las Palmas 32 8 8 16 -14 -28.1 32
18 Alaves 32 7 10 15 -12 -3.7 31
19 Leganes 32 6 11 15 -19 -24.8 29
20 Valladolid 32 4 4 24 -53 -30.2 16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ath Bilbao Las Palmas
1–0 I. Williams
Ruíz de Galarreta
5′
Yuri Berchiche 🟨
11′
Peio Canales 🔁
↦ Oihan Sancet
22′
27′
🟨 Stefan Bajčetić
Half-time 1–0
53′
🟨 Oliver McBurnie
Nico Williams 🔁
↦ Álex Berenguer
65′
65′
🔁 Jaime Mata
↦ Sandro Ramírez
65′
🔁 Manu Fuster
↦ O. McBurnie
74′
🔁 A. Januzaj
↦ Marvin Park
77′
🟨 Alex Suárez
Gorka Guruzeta 🔁
↦ Maroan Sannadi
84′
Beñat Prados 🔁
↦ Ruíz de Galarreta
84′
84′
🔁 Marc Cardona
↦ Stefan Bajčetić
84′
🔁 José Campaña
↦ Álex Suárez
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Ath Bilbao

4-2-3-1
1 Unai Simón G
18 De Marcos D
3 Dani Vivian D
5 Yeray D
17 Yuri D
23 Mikel Jauregizar M
16 Ruíz de Galarreta M
9 I. Williams M
8 Oihan Sancet M
7 Álex Berenguer M
21 Maroan Sannadi F
Bench (12)
28 Peio Canales
10 Nico Williams
12 Gorka Guruzeta
24 Beñat Prados
15 Lekue
14 Unai Núñez
4 Aitor Paredes
32 Adama Boiro
6 Mikel Vesga
13 Julen Agirrezabala
2 Andoni Gorosabel
11 Álvaro Djaló

Coach: Ernesto Valverde

Las Palmas

4-2-3-1
13 D. Horkaš G
18 Viti Rozada D
4 Álex Suárez D
15 S. McKenna D
3 Mika Mármol D
29 Dário Essugo M
21 Stefan Bajčetić M
2 Marvin Park M
10 Alberto Moleiro M
19 Sandro Ramírez M
16 O. McBurnie F
Bench (11)
17 Jaime Mata
14 Manu Fuster
24 A. Januzaj
9 Marc Cardona
8 José Campaña
12 E. Loiodice
35 Israel Mora
23 Álex Muñoz
6 A. Pelmard
30 Álvaro Killane
28 Juanma Herzog

Coach: Diego Martínez

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,36
U
5,00
B
8,48
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,75
U2,5 ✓
2,09
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Isidro Díaz de Mera · 82 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,28 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.