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Premier League
Referee: P Bankes
Bournemouth
T T U S U
1–1
Full-time
Man United
U U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bournemouth Man United
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
0,8
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,3
3,3
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
1,3
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Premier League · 33/33 matches
Win Ø 35%
39%
30%
Points per game
1,5
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
58%
55%
Both score Ø 52%
61%
42%
Average goals
2,8
2,5
Scored
1,6
1,2
Conceded
1,2
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,4
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,53 xG 2,52
38% Possession 62%
8 Shots 25
1 Shots on target 6
1 Blocked shots 13
5 Goalkeeper saves 0
5 Corners 10
2 Offside 2
11 Free kicks against 12
4 Yellow cards 2
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Bournemouth 10. · Man United 15.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Liverpool 33 24 7 2 +44 +44.9 79
2 Arsenal 34 18 13 3 +34 +25.3 67
3 Newcastle 34 19 5 10 +21 +15.7 62
4 Man City 34 18 7 9 +23 +16.5 61
5 Chelsea 34 17 9 8 +19 +19.5 60
6 Nott'm Forest 33 18 6 9 +14 -2.4 60
7 Aston Villa 34 16 9 9 +5 +8.1 57
8 Fulham 34 14 9 11 +4 +5.3 51
9 Brighton 34 13 12 9 +1 +4.6 51
10 Bournemouth 33 13 10 10 +12 +17.2 49
11 Brentford 33 13 7 13 +6 -0.4 46
12 Crystal Palace 34 11 12 11 -4 +6.9 45
13 Wolves 34 12 5 17 -10 -12.6 41
14 Everton 34 8 14 12 -7 -5.7 38
15 Man United 33 10 8 15 -8 -5.2 38
16 Tottenham 33 11 4 18 +10 +0.9 37
17 West Ham 34 9 9 16 -19 -11.3 36
18 Ipswich 34 4 9 21 -41 -40.1 21
19 Leicester 34 4 6 24 -49 -39.3 18
20 Southampton 34 2 5 27 -55 -48.0 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Bournemouth Man United
Tyler Adams 🟨
22′
1–0 A. Semenyo
Evanilson
23′
Half-time 1–0
57′
🟨 Patrick Dorgu
Dean Huijsen 🟨
63′
Justin Kluivert 🟨
65′
65′
🔁 M. Mount
↦ K. Mainoo
65′
🔁 M. Ugarte
↦ Casemiro
66′
🔁 V. Lindelöf
↦ H. Maguire
Evanilson ℹ️
VAR: Card upgrade
69′
Adam Smith 🟨
70′
Evanilson 🟥
70′
L. Cook 🔁
↦ A. Scott
72′
M. Tavernier 🔁
↦ J. Kluivert
72′
75′
🔁 C. Obi
↦ N. Mazraoui
79′
🟨 Luke Shaw
M. Senesi 🔁
↦ A. Semenyo
85′
90′
🔁 C. Eriksen
↦ P. Dorgu
96′
R. Højlund 1–1
M. Ugarte
D. Jebbison 🔁
↦ D. Ouattara
98′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Bournemouth

4-2-3-1
13 Kepa G
15 A. Smith D
27 I. Zabarnyi D
2 Dean Huijsen D
3 M. Kerkez D
12 T. Adams M
8 A. Scott M
24 A. Semenyo M
19 J. Kluivert M
11 D. Ouattara M
9 Evanilson F
Bench (9)
4 L. Cook
16 M. Tavernier
5 M. Senesi
21 D. Jebbison
7 D. Brooks
20 J. Soler
22 J. Araujo
40 W. Dennis
23 J. Hill

Coach: Andoni Iraola

Man United

3-4-2-1
24 A. Onana G
15 L. Yoro D
5 H. Maguire D
23 L. Shaw D
3 N. Mazraoui M
37 K. Mainoo M
18 Casemiro M
13 P. Dorgu M
17 A. Garnacho F
8 Bruno Fernandes F
9 R. Højlund F
Bench (9)
7 M. Mount
25 M. Ugarte
2 V. Lindelöf
56 C. Obi
14 C. Eriksen
22 T. Heaton
41 H. Amass
55 T. Fredricson
35 J. Evans

Coach: Ruben Amorim

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,67
U ✓
4,13
B
4,77
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,68
U2,5 ✓
2,20
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

P Bankes · 156 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.