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Conference League
Referee: J Xhaja
Guimaraes
U S T S U
1–1
Full-time
Fiorentina
S U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Fiorentina
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,8
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,0
3,3
Scored
2,2
2,5
Conceded
0,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+1,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 11/7 matches
Win Ø 74%
91%
57%
Points per game
2,8
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 72%
73%
71%
Both score Ø 58%
45%
71%
Average goals
3,1
4,4
Scored
2,6
3,0
Conceded
0,5
1,4
Goal diff per game
+2,2
+1,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,05 xG 1,44
46% Possession 54%
17 Shots 12
5 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 6
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
2 Corners 7
0 Offside 2
20 Free kicks against 7
4 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Guimaraes Fiorentina
1–0 Gustavo Silva ⚽
Kaio César
33′
Gustavo Silva 🟨
42′
Half-time 1–0
Tiago Silva 🟨
46′
46′
🔁 Y. Adli
↦ A. Richardson
46′
🔁 L. Ranieri
↦ P. Comuzzo
Manuel Silva 🟨
50′
57′
🔁 A. Colpani
↦ J. Ikoné
57′
🔁 M. Kean
↦ A. Guðmundsson
66′
🟨 Christian Kouamé
Samu 🔁
↦ João Mendes
67′
75′
🔁 R. Gosens
↦ F. Parisi
Tomás Händel 🔁
↦ Tiago Silva
80′
Telmo Arcanjo 🔁
↦ Nuno Santos
80′
87′
⚽ R. Mandragora 1–1
Bica 🔁
↦ Kaio César
93′
Bruno Varela 🟨
95′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Guimaraes

4-3-3
14 Bruno Varela G
22 Alberto Baio D
44 Jorge Fernandes D
15 Óscar Rivas D
13 João Teixeira Mendes D
10 Tiago Silva M
6 Manu M
17 João Mendes M
11 Kaio César F
71 Gustavo Silva F
77 Nuno Santos F
Bench (12)
20 Samu
8 Tomás Händel
18 Telmo Arcanjo
79 Bica
3 M. Villanueva
27 Charles
86 D. Ndembo-Michel
92 Diogo Sousa
28 Zé Carlos
4 Tomás Ribeiro
2 Miguel Maga
91 Gui

Coach: Rui Borges

Fiorentina

4-2-3-1
1 P. Terracciano G
2 Dodô D
28 L. Martínez Quarta D
15 P. Comuzzo D
65 F. Parisi D
24 A. Richardson M
8 R. Mandragora M
11 J. Ikoné M
10 A. Guðmundsson M
9 L. Beltrán M
99 C. Kouamé F
Bench (12)
29 Y. Adli
6 L. Ranieri
23 A. Colpani
20 M. Kean
21 R. Gosens
30 T. Martinelli
63 M. Caprini
5 M. Pongračić
33 M. Kayode
64 J. Harder
22 M. Moreno
43 David de Gea

Coach: R. Palladino

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

J Xhaja · 20 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.