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Conference League
Referee: N Minaković
Lugano
S T S S T
2–2
Full-time
Pafos
S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Pafos
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,8
2,8
Scored
2,2
2,0
Conceded
1,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 5/11 matches
Win Ø 68%
80%
55%
Points per game
2,4
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
60%
64%
Both score Ø 38%
40%
36%
Average goals
2,8
2,8
Scored
1,8
1,9
Conceded
1,0
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,42 xG 0,77
48% Possession 52%
12 Shots 15
5 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 4
0 Offside 2
15 Free kicks against 7
5 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Lugano Pafos
4′
⚽ A. Saipi 1–0
own goal
2–0 H. Mahmoud ⚽
M. Zanotti
7′
26′
🟨 Muamer Tanković
29′
🟨 João Correia
3–0 M. Bottani ⚽
M. Zanotti
33′
Half-time 3–0
Mattia Bottani 🟨
46′
O. Doumbia 🔁
↦ H. Mahou
59′
67′
🔁 K. Pileas
↦ Rafael Pontelo
67′
🔁 Jairo
↦ Anderson Silva
67′
🔁 Domingos Quina
↦ I. Šunjić
Uran Bislimi 🟨
70′
K. Przybyłko 🔁
↦ M. Bottani
73′
74′
🟨 Derrick Luckassen
79′
🔁 Jajá
↦ Pêpê Rodrigues
79′
🔁 Léo Natel
↦ Bruno Felipe
Martim Marques 🔁
↦ M. Valenzuela
90′
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud 🟨
91′
A. El Wafi 🔁
↦ R. Steffen
91′
Daniel Dos Santos 🔁
↦ H. Mahmoud
91′
Anto Grgić 🟨
94′
95′
⚽ David Goldar 3–1
M. Tanković
Kacper Przybyłko 🟨
96′
96′
🟨 Domingos Quina
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Lugano

4-2-3-1
1 A. Saipi G
46 M. Zanotti D
6 A. Papadopoulos D
5 A. Hajdari D
23 M. Valenzuela D
8 A. Grgic M
29 H. Mahmoud M
11 R. Steffen M
25 U. Bislimi M
10 M. Bottani M
18 H. Mahou F
Bench (11)
20 O. Doumbia
93 K. Przybyłko
22 A. El Wafi
26 Martim Marques
27 Daniel Dos Santos
58 S. Osigwe
2 Z. Brault-Guillard
21 Y. Cimignani
13 A. Ndiaye
9 S. Vladi
17 L. Mai

Coach: M. Croci-Torti

Pafos

4-1-4-1
93 N. Michael G
7 Bruno Felipe D
23 D. Luckassen D
5 David Goldar D
45 Rafael Pontelo D
88 Pêpê Rodrigues M
77 João Correia M
30 V. Dragomir M
26 I. Šunjić M
22 M. Tanković M
33 Anderson Silva F
Bench (10)
2 K. Pileas
10 Jairo
8 Domingos Quina
11 Jajá
9 Léo Natel
70 M. Ilia
83 P. Theodoulou
25 M. Name
19 J. Silva
1 I. Ivušić

Coach: Carcedo

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

N Minaković · 15 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
18,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.