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Primeira Liga

Referee: Gustavo Correia

Nacional

S T U T S

0–2

Full-time

Benfica

S S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,5

2,8

Scored

0,7

2,3

Conceded

0,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 50%

23%

77%

Points per game

0,9

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

23%

54%

Both score Ø 35%

23%

46%

Average goals

1,9

3,1

Scored

0,6

2,5

Conceded

1,3

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,15 xG 1,47

33% Possession 67%

5 Shots 16

1 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 11

0 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 13. · Benfica 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	12	0	2	+33	+28.0	36
2	Porto	14	11	1	2	+24	+16.9	34
3	Benfica	13	10	2	1	+24	+14.6	32
4	Santa Clara	14	9	0	5	+3	+7.9	27
5	Sp Braga	14	7	4	3	+9	+12.5	25
6	Guimaraes	14	6	4	4	+4	+3.4	22
7	Moreirense	14	6	2	6	+0	+1.2	20
8	Famalicao	14	4	7	3	+2	-5.9	19
9	Casa Pia	14	4	5	5	-4	-2.7	17
10	Gil Vicente	14	4	4	6	-7	-7.8	16
11	Rio Ave	14	4	4	6	-10	-11.1	16
12	Estoril	14	3	5	6	-9	-14.3	14
13	Nacional	13	3	3	7	-9	-0.0	12
14	AVS	14	2	6	6	-11	-7.7	12
15	Estrela	14	3	3	8	-12	-9.2	12
16	Boavista	14	2	5	7	-9	-2.5	11
17	Arouca	14	3	2	9	-15	-11.5	11
18	Farense	14	2	3	9	-13	-11.9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	8	8	0	0	+19	+16.8	24
2	Benfica	7	7	0	0	+20	+10.3	21
3	Sp Lisbon	7	6	0	1	+13	+12.5	18
4	Santa Clara	7	6	0	1	+4	+7.9	18
5	Moreirense	6	4	2	0	+5	-1.5	14
6	Guimaraes	6	4	1	1	+4	+3.1	13
7	Rio Ave	7	3	4	0	+3	+1.0	13
8	Sp Braga	8	3	3	2	+4	+9.5	12
9	Gil Vicente	6	3	2	1	+5	+0.1	11
10	Estrela	7	3	2	2	+0	-1.8	11
11	Estoril	8	3	2	3	-3	-7.2	11
12	Famalicao	7	2	4	1	+0	-1.3	10
13	Nacional	6	3	1	2	-3	-0.9	10
14	Casa Pia	7	2	3	2	+0	+1.6	9
15	AVS	8	2	3	3	-5	-5.7	9
16	Arouca	7	2	1	4	-5	-6.0	7
17	Farense	7	2	0	5	-7	-3.4	6
18	Boavista	6	0	2	4	-8	-0.8	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	0	1	+20	+15.4	18
2	Sp Braga	6	4	1	1	+5	+3.1	13
3	Benfica	6	3	2	1	+4	+4.3	11
4	Porto	6	3	1	2	+5	+0.1	10
5	Famalicao	7	2	3	2	+2	-4.6	9
6	Guimaraes	8	2	3	3	+0	+0.4	9
7	Boavista	8	2	3	3	-1	-1.7	9
8	Santa Clara	7	3	0	4	-1	+0.1	9
9	Casa Pia	7	2	2	3	-4	-4.3	8
10	Moreirense	8	2	0	6	-5	+2.7	6
11	Gil Vicente	8	1	2	5	-12	-7.9	5
12	Arouca	7	1	1	5	-10	-5.5	4
13	AVS	6	0	3	3	-6	-2.0	3
14	Estoril	6	0	3	3	-6	-7.1	3
15	Farense	7	0	3	4	-6	-8.5	3
16	Rio Ave	7	1	0	6	-13	-12.1	3
17	Nacional	7	0	2	5	-6	+0.8	2
18	Estrela	7	0	1	6	-12	-7.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.