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Conference League
Referee: Sander van der Eijk
Lugano
U U T T T
0–5
Full-time
Celje
U S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Celje
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
0%
17%
Points per game
0,5
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
50%
100%
Average goals
2,0
3,8
Scored
0,5
1,8
Conceded
1,5
2,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

51% Possession 49%
15 Shots 16
4 Shots on target 10
7 Blocked shots 2
5 Goalkeeper saves 4
2 Corners 2
1 Offside 3
14 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

13. Mar -25 Lugano – Celje 5–4 6. Mar -25 Celje – Lugano 1–0

Match report

Lugano Celje
35′
⚽ D. Sturm 0–1
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud 🟨
42′
44′
⚽ F. Kovacevic 0–2
Half-time 0–2
A. Grgic 🔁
↦ U. Bislimi
46′
G. Koutsias 🔁
↦ M. Belhadj
46′
59′
⚽ M. Zabukovnik 0–3
Juanjo Nieto
D. Dos Santos 🔁
↦ M. Bottani
61′
M. Zanotti 🔁
↦ A. El Wafi
61′
A. Hajdari 🔁
↦
67′
78′
🔁 M. Boben
↦ L. Bejger
Lars Lukas Mai 🟨
82′
84′
⚽ F. Kovacevic 0–4
89′
⚽ M. Kvesic 0–5
N. Iosifov
Full-time 0–5

Line-ups

Lugano

3-5-1-1
1 A. Saipi G
6 A. Papadopoulos D
17 L. Mai D
22 A. El Wafi D
21 Y. Cimignani M
25 U. Bislimi M
20 O. Doumbia M
29 M. Belhadj M
7 E. Alioski M
10 M. Bottani F
91 K. Behrens F
Bench (11)
15 F. Pseftis
99 D. Mina
4 D. Kelvin
5 A. Hajdari
8 A. Grgic
9 G. Koutsias
18 H. Mahou
27 D. Dos Santos
46 M. Zanotti
49 I. Maslarov
97 A. Duville-Parsemain

Coach: Mattia Croci-Torti

Celje

3-4-2-1
1 Z. Leban G
2 Juanjo Nieto D
44 L. Bejger D
6 A. Tutyskinas D
20 N. Iosifov M
19 M. Zabukovnik M
23 Z. Karnicnik M
8 M. Kvesic M
11 M. Avdyli F
10 D. Sturm F
9 F. Kovacevic F
Bench (9)
12 L. Kolar
25 T. Zorko
3 D. Vuklisevic
4 D. Hrka
5 G. Vodeb
7 F. Jevsenak
14 A. Chidi
16 I. Vidovic
42 M. Boben

Coach: Albert Riera Ortega

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Sander van der Eijk · 25 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,28 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.