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Premier League

Referee: Robert Madley

Chelsea

S T T S U

1–3

Full-time

Southampton

U S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,5

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 29%

29%

Points per game

1,1

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 79%

86%

71%

Both score Ø 57%

71%

43%

Average goals

3,6

2,7

Scored

1,6

1,4

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

60% Possession 40%

10 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 6

1 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 16. · Southampton 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	6	0	2	+12	18
2	Man United	7	5	1	1	+7	16
3	Crystal Palace	8	5	0	3	+4	15
4	Leicester	8	4	3	1	+2	15
5	West Ham	8	4	2	2	+6	14
6	Arsenal	7	4	1	2	+3	13
7	Everton	7	3	3	1	+4	12
8	Tottenham	7	3	3	1	+4	12
9	Liverpool	7	3	2	2	-2	11
10	Watford	8	2	4	2	-1	10
11	Southampton	7	2	3	2	+1	9
12	Swansea	7	2	3	2	+0	9
13	Norwich	8	2	3	3	-2	9
14	Stoke	8	2	3	3	-2	9
15	Bournemouth	8	2	2	4	-2	8
16	Chelsea	7	2	2	3	-3	8
17	West Brom	8	2	2	4	-5	8
18	Aston Villa	8	1	1	6	-5	4
19	Sunderland	8	0	3	5	-10	3
20	Newcastle	8	0	3	5	-11	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	Man City	4	3	0	1	+9	9
3	Tottenham	4	2	2	0	+4	8
4	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Leicester	4	2	1	1	+0	7
6	Liverpool	4	2	1	1	-1	7
7	Southampton	4	2	0	2	+1	6
8	Crystal Palace	4	2	0	2	+1	6
9	Bournemouth	4	1	2	1	+1	5
10	Watford	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+1	4
12	West Ham	4	1	1	2	+0	4
13	Everton	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Arsenal	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Norwich	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Stoke	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Newcastle	4	0	2	2	-2	2
18	Sunderland	4	0	2	2	-3	2
19	Aston Villa	4	0	1	3	-3	1
20	West Brom	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Ham	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	Arsenal	4	3	0	1	+3	9
3	Man City	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	Crystal Palace	4	3	0	1	+3	9
5	Everton	4	2	2	0	+4	8
6	Leicester	4	2	2	0	+2	8
7	West Brom	4	2	1	1	+0	7
8	Man United	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Norwich	4	1	2	1	-1	5
10	Watford	4	1	2	1	-1	5
11	Stoke	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Tottenham	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Liverpool	3	1	1	1	-1	4
14	Chelsea	4	1	1	2	-4	4
15	Southampton	3	0	3	0	+0	3
16	Aston Villa	4	1	0	3	-2	3
17	Bournemouth	4	1	0	3	-3	3
18	Swansea	4	0	2	2	-3	2
19	Sunderland	4	0	1	3	-7	1
20	Newcastle	4	0	1	3	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.