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Eredivisie

Referee: Allard Lindhout

Excelsior

T S T T U

1–0

Full-time

Utrecht

U S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Utrecht

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

3,3

3,2

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,2

This season — Eredivisie · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 22%

14%

29%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

57%

Both score Ø 58%

29%

86%

Average goals

3,0

3,4

Scored

1,1

1,7

Conceded

1,9

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

38% Possession 62%

14 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 7

1 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 16. · Utrecht 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	7	6	1	0	+16	19
2	Heracles	8	6	0	2	+10	18
3	Zwolle	8	5	2	1	+7	17
4	Feyenoord	7	5	1	1	+6	16
5	PSV Eindhoven	7	4	2	1	+10	14
6	Nijmegen	8	4	1	3	+1	13
7	Roda	8	3	3	2	+0	12
8	Vitesse	7	3	2	2	+6	11
9	Groningen	7	3	1	3	+0	10
10	Utrecht	7	2	3	2	+0	9
11	AZ Alkmaar	7	2	2	3	-2	8
12	Heerenveen	8	1	4	3	-4	7
13	Willem II	8	1	3	4	-4	6
14	Twente	7	1	3	3	-5	6
15	Den Haag	8	1	3	4	-6	6
16	Excelsior	7	1	2	4	-5	5
17	Cambuur	8	0	4	4	-16	4
18	De Graafschap	7	0	1	6	-14	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Heracles	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Feyenoord	4	4	0	0	+6	12
3	Groningen	4	3	1	0	+6	10
4	Zwolle	4	3	1	0	+5	10
5	Vitesse	3	3	0	0	+9	9
6	Ajax	3	3	0	0	+9	9
7	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+5	9
8	Nijmegen	4	3	0	1	+4	9
9	Roda	5	2	3	0	+3	9
10	Utrecht	4	2	2	0	+3	8
11	Heerenveen	4	1	3	0	+2	6
12	Excelsior	3	1	1	1	+1	4
13	Willem II	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Twente	3	1	1	1	-2	4
15	AZ Alkmaar	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Den Haag	4	0	3	1	-1	3
17	De Graafschap	3	0	1	2	-5	1
18	Cambuur	4	0	1	3	-13	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	4	3	1	0	+7	10
2	Zwolle	4	2	1	1	+2	7
3	Heracles	4	2	0	2	+2	6
4	PSV Eindhoven	4	1	2	1	+5	5
5	AZ Alkmaar	3	1	1	1	+0	4
6	Feyenoord	3	1	1	1	+0	4
7	Nijmegen	4	1	1	2	-3	4
8	Cambuur	4	0	3	1	-3	3
9	Roda	3	1	0	2	-3	3
10	Den Haag	4	1	0	3	-5	3
11	Vitesse	4	0	2	2	-3	2
12	Twente	4	0	2	2	-3	2
13	Willem II	4	0	2	2	-4	2
14	Utrecht	3	0	1	2	-3	1
15	Excelsior	4	0	1	3	-6	1
16	Heerenveen	4	0	1	3	-6	1
17	Groningen	3	0	0	3	-6	0
18	De Graafschap	4	0	0	4	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.