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Championship

Referee: Jeremy Simpson

Derby

T S S U S

2–0

Full-time

Brentford

U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,0

This season — Championship · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 28%

33%

22%

Points per game

1,6

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 73%

67%

78%

Average goals

1,9

3,2

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

52% Possession 48%

23 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 5

9 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

12 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 10. · Brentford 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	9	6	3	0	+6	21
2	Middlesbrough	9	6	2	1	+12	20
3	Burnley	10	5	3	2	+3	18
4	Reading	9	4	3	2	+7	15
5	Hull	9	4	3	2	+5	15
6	Wolves	10	4	3	3	+4	15
7	Birmingham	9	4	3	2	+4	15
8	Cardiff	9	4	3	2	+3	15
9	Ipswich	9	4	3	2	+0	15
10	Derby	9	3	5	1	+3	14
11	Nott'm Forest	9	3	3	3	+0	12
12	Sheffield Weds	9	3	3	3	-1	12
13	QPR	9	3	3	3	-3	12
14	Fulham	9	3	2	4	+1	11
15	Leeds	9	2	5	2	-2	11
16	Huddersfield	10	2	4	4	-4	10
17	Charlton	9	2	3	4	-3	9
18	Blackburn	9	1	5	3	+0	8
19	Brentford	9	2	2	5	-5	8
20	Bolton	9	1	5	3	-6	8
21	Rotherham	10	2	2	6	-7	8
22	Preston	9	1	4	4	-4	7
23	Milton Keynes Dons	9	2	1	6	-5	7
24	Bristol City	9	1	3	5	-8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	5	4	0	1	+9	12
2	Brighton	4	4	0	0	+4	12
3	Hull	5	3	2	0	+5	11
4	Burnley	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Cardiff	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Wolves	5	2	2	1	+3	8
7	Ipswich	5	2	2	1	+2	8
8	Charlton	4	2	1	1	+2	7
9	Fulham	5	2	1	2	+1	7
10	Sheffield Weds	4	2	1	1	+1	7
11	Bolton	5	1	4	0	+1	7
12	Birmingham	5	2	1	2	+0	7
13	Huddersfield	5	1	3	1	+2	6
14	Reading	4	1	2	1	+3	5
15	Blackburn	4	1	2	1	+2	5
16	QPR	4	1	2	1	+1	5
17	Nott'm Forest	4	1	1	2	-1	4
18	Brentford	5	1	1	3	-4	4
19	Rotherham	5	1	1	3	-5	4
20	Leeds	4	0	3	1	-1	3
21	Derby	4	0	3	1	-1	3
22	Preston	5	0	3	2	-2	3
23	Milton Keynes Dons	5	1	0	4	-5	3
24	Bristol City	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Derby	5	3	2	0	+4	11
2	Reading	5	3	1	1	+4	10
3	Brighton	5	2	3	0	+2	9
4	Birmingham	4	2	2	0	+4	8
5	Middlesbrough	4	2	2	0	+3	8
6	Nott'm Forest	5	2	2	1	+1	8
7	Burnley	5	2	2	1	+0	8
8	Leeds	5	2	2	1	-1	8
9	Wolves	5	2	1	2	+1	7
10	Ipswich	4	2	1	1	-2	7
11	QPR	5	2	1	2	-4	7
12	Cardiff	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Sheffield Weds	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Bristol City	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	Fulham	4	1	1	2	+0	4
16	Milton Keynes Dons	4	1	1	2	+0	4
17	Hull	4	1	1	2	+0	4
18	Brentford	4	1	1	2	-1	4
19	Rotherham	5	1	1	3	-2	4
20	Preston	4	1	1	2	-2	4
21	Huddersfield	5	1	1	3	-6	4
22	Blackburn	5	0	3	2	-2	3
23	Charlton	5	0	2	3	-5	2
24	Bolton	4	0	1	3	-7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.