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Premier League

Referee: Craig Pawson

Stoke

T S S T S

0–0

Full-time

Arsenal

S T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 53%

43%

62%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

33%

52%

Both score Ø 41%

38%

43%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,1

1,8

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

45% Possession 55%

14 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 6

9 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 7. · Arsenal 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	22	12	8	2	+13	44
2	Man City	22	13	4	5	+22	43
3	Arsenal	21	13	4	4	+16	43
4	Tottenham	22	10	9	3	+20	39
5	Man United	22	10	7	5	+8	37
6	West Ham	22	9	8	5	+8	35
7	Stoke	21	9	5	7	+2	32
8	Crystal Palace	22	9	4	9	-1	31
9	Liverpool	22	8	7	7	-3	31
10	Southampton	22	8	6	8	+7	30
11	Everton	22	6	11	5	+7	29
12	Watford	21	8	5	8	+1	29
13	West Brom	22	7	6	9	-8	27
14	Chelsea	22	6	7	9	-3	25
15	Bournemouth	22	6	6	10	-11	24
16	Norwich	22	6	5	11	-14	23
17	Newcastle	22	5	6	11	-15	21
18	Swansea	21	4	7	10	-11	19
19	Sunderland	22	5	3	14	-18	18
20	Aston Villa	22	2	6	14	-20	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	9	1	2	+21	28
2	Arsenal	10	7	2	1	+10	23
3	Tottenham	12	6	4	2	+13	22
4	Southampton	12	6	2	4	+9	20
5	Man United	10	5	4	1	+8	19
6	Leicester	10	5	4	1	+3	19
7	West Ham	10	4	4	2	+4	16
8	Stoke	10	5	1	4	+3	16
9	Chelsea	12	4	4	4	+1	16
10	Liverpool	11	4	4	3	-1	16
11	Norwich	10	4	3	3	+2	15
12	Newcastle	12	3	5	4	+1	14
13	Watford	11	4	2	5	+1	14
14	Crystal Palace	11	4	2	5	+0	14
15	West Brom	11	4	2	5	-3	14
16	Everton	11	3	4	4	+3	13
17	Bournemouth	11	3	4	4	-2	13
18	Swansea	11	3	4	4	-5	13
19	Sunderland	10	3	2	5	+1	11
20	Aston Villa	11	1	4	6	-6	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	12	7	4	1	+10	25
2	Arsenal	11	6	2	3	+6	20
3	West Ham	12	5	4	3	+4	19
4	Man United	12	5	3	4	+0	18
5	Tottenham	10	4	5	1	+7	17
6	Crystal Palace	11	5	2	4	-1	17
7	Everton	11	3	7	1	+4	16
8	Stoke	11	4	4	3	-1	16
9	Man City	10	4	3	3	+1	15
10	Watford	10	4	3	3	+0	15
11	Liverpool	11	4	3	4	-2	15
12	West Brom	11	3	4	4	-5	13
13	Bournemouth	11	3	2	6	-9	11
14	Southampton	10	2	4	4	-2	10
15	Chelsea	10	2	3	5	-4	9
16	Norwich	12	2	2	8	-16	8
17	Newcastle	10	2	1	7	-16	7
18	Sunderland	12	2	1	9	-19	7
19	Swansea	10	1	3	6	-6	6
20	Aston Villa	11	1	2	8	-14	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.