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Serie A

Referee: Celi Domenico

Genoa

T T T T S

4–0

Full-time

Palermo

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Genoa Palermo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,0

This season — Serie A · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 29%

26%

32%

Points per game

1,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

32%

42%

Both score Ø 40%

37%

42%

Average goals

2,4

2,5

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

57% Possession 43%

18 Shots 11

10 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

1 Corners 2

3 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Genoa 17. · Palermo 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	20	13	5	2	+25	44
2	Inter	20	12	4	4	+12	40
3	Juventus	19	12	3	4	+18	39
4	Fiorentina	19	12	2	5	+18	38
5	Roma	19	9	7	3	+14	34
6	Sassuolo	19	8	7	4	+4	31
7	Empoli	19	9	3	7	+1	30
8	Milan	19	8	5	6	+2	29
9	Lazio	19	8	3	8	-4	27
10	Chievo	19	7	5	7	+4	26
11	Torino	19	7	4	8	+1	25
12	Atalanta	20	7	4	9	-3	25
13	Udinese	19	7	3	9	-9	24
14	Sampdoria	19	6	5	8	-2	23
15	Bologna	19	7	1	11	-5	22
16	Palermo	19	6	3	10	-10	21
17	Genoa	19	5	4	10	-7	19
18	Frosinone	20	4	3	13	-23	15
19	Carpi	19	3	5	11	-17	14
20	Verona	19	0	8	11	-19	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	10	8	2	0	+14	26
2	Fiorentina	10	7	1	2	+13	22
3	Roma	9	6	2	1	+11	20
4	Juventus	9	6	2	1	+10	20
5	Inter	10	6	1	3	+4	19
6	Torino	11	5	3	3	+6	18
7	Lazio	10	5	3	2	+6	18
8	Sampdoria	10	5	2	3	+6	17
9	Atalanta	10	5	2	3	+5	17
10	Milan	9	5	2	2	+2	17
11	Sassuolo	8	4	4	0	+4	16
12	Empoli	9	4	1	4	+1	13
13	Genoa	9	4	1	4	+0	13
14	Frosinone	10	4	1	5	-5	13
15	Chievo	9	3	3	3	+3	12
16	Palermo	10	3	2	5	-4	11
17	Udinese	9	3	2	4	-4	11
18	Bologna	10	3	1	6	-1	10
19	Carpi	10	2	3	5	-3	9
20	Verona	10	0	4	6	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	10	6	3	1	+8	21
2	Juventus	10	6	1	3	+8	19
3	Napoli	10	5	3	2	+11	18
4	Empoli	10	5	2	3	+0	17
5	Fiorentina	9	5	1	3	+5	16
6	Sassuolo	11	4	3	4	+0	15
7	Roma	10	3	5	2	+3	14
8	Chievo	10	4	2	4	+1	14
9	Udinese	10	4	1	5	-5	13
10	Milan	10	3	3	4	+0	12
11	Bologna	9	4	0	5	-4	12
12	Palermo	9	3	1	5	-6	10
13	Lazio	9	3	0	6	-10	9
14	Atalanta	10	2	2	6	-8	8
15	Torino	8	2	1	5	-5	7
16	Genoa	10	1	3	6	-7	6
17	Sampdoria	9	1	3	5	-8	6
18	Carpi	9	1	2	6	-14	5
19	Verona	9	0	4	5	-10	4
20	Frosinone	10	0	2	8	-18	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.