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Serie A

Referee: Daniele Doveri

Milan

U U S T U

2–0

Full-time

Fiorentina

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,5

This season — Serie A · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 53%

42%

63%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

42%

58%

Both score Ø 53%

53%

Average goals

2,5

2,9

Scored

1,3

1,9

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

31% Possession 69%

4 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 1

0 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 10

8 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 8. · Fiorentina 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	20	13	5	2	+25	44
2	Juventus	20	13	3	4	+22	42
3	Inter	20	12	4	4	+12	40
4	Fiorentina	19	12	2	5	+18	38
5	Roma	20	9	8	3	+14	35
6	Sassuolo	19	8	7	4	+4	31
7	Empoli	20	9	4	7	+1	31
8	Milan	19	8	5	6	+2	29
9	Lazio	20	8	4	8	-4	28
10	Chievo	20	7	6	7	+4	27
11	Torino	19	7	4	8	+1	25
12	Atalanta	20	7	4	9	-3	25
13	Udinese	20	7	3	10	-13	24
14	Sampdoria	20	6	5	9	-3	23
15	Bologna	20	7	2	11	-5	23
16	Genoa	20	6	4	10	-3	22
17	Palermo	20	6	3	11	-14	21
18	Carpi	20	4	5	11	-16	17
19	Frosinone	20	4	3	13	-23	15
20	Verona	20	0	9	11	-19	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	10	8	2	0	+14	26
2	Fiorentina	10	7	1	2	+13	22
3	Roma	10	6	3	1	+11	21
4	Juventus	9	6	2	1	+10	20
5	Inter	10	6	1	3	+4	19
6	Torino	11	5	3	3	+6	18
7	Lazio	10	5	3	2	+6	18
8	Sampdoria	10	5	2	3	+6	17
9	Atalanta	10	5	2	3	+5	17
10	Milan	9	5	2	2	+2	17
11	Genoa	10	5	1	4	+4	16
12	Sassuolo	8	4	4	0	+4	16
13	Chievo	10	3	4	3	+3	13
14	Empoli	9	4	1	4	+1	13
15	Frosinone	10	4	1	5	-5	13
16	Carpi	11	3	3	5	-2	12
17	Bologna	11	3	2	6	-1	11
18	Palermo	10	3	2	5	-4	11
19	Udinese	10	3	2	5	-8	11
20	Verona	10	0	4	6	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	11	7	1	3	+12	22
2	Inter	10	6	3	1	+8	21
3	Napoli	10	5	3	2	+11	18
4	Empoli	11	5	3	3	+0	18
5	Fiorentina	9	5	1	3	+5	16
6	Sassuolo	11	4	3	4	+0	15
7	Roma	10	3	5	2	+3	14
8	Chievo	10	4	2	4	+1	14
9	Udinese	10	4	1	5	-5	13
10	Milan	10	3	3	4	+0	12
11	Bologna	9	4	0	5	-4	12
12	Lazio	10	3	1	6	-10	10
13	Palermo	10	3	1	6	-10	10
14	Atalanta	10	2	2	6	-8	8
15	Torino	8	2	1	5	-5	7
16	Genoa	10	1	3	6	-7	6
17	Sampdoria	10	1	3	6	-9	6
18	Verona	10	0	5	5	-10	5
19	Carpi	9	1	2	6	-14	5
20	Frosinone	10	0	2	8	-18	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.