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Premier League

Referee: Andre Marriner

Southampton

S T S U S

4–2

Full-time

Man City

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

2,2

2,3

Conceded

1,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,8

This season — Premier League · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 49%

43%

54%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

46%

66%

Both score Ø 46%

46%

Average goals

2,5

2,9

Scored

1,4

1,9

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

40% Possession 60%

14 Shots 6

7 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 2

3 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 8. · Man City 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	36	22	11	3	+30	77
2	Tottenham	35	19	12	4	+39	69
3	Arsenal	36	19	10	7	+25	67
4	Man City	35	19	7	9	+32	64
5	Man United	35	17	9	9	+12	60
6	West Ham	35	15	14	6	+17	59
7	Liverpool	35	15	10	10	+11	55
8	Southampton	35	15	9	11	+12	54
9	Stoke	36	13	9	14	-14	48
10	Chelsea	34	12	11	11	+7	47
11	Everton	35	10	14	11	+6	44
12	Watford	35	12	8	15	-6	44
13	Swansea	36	11	10	15	-13	43
14	West Brom	36	10	11	15	-14	41
15	Bournemouth	36	11	8	17	-20	41
16	Crystal Palace	36	10	9	17	-10	39
17	Newcastle	36	8	9	19	-25	33
18	Sunderland	35	7	11	17	-18	32
19	Norwich	35	8	7	20	-26	31
20	Aston Villa	36	3	7	26	-45	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	18	11	6	1	+15	39
2	Man United	18	11	5	2	+16	38
3	Man City	18	12	1	5	+26	37
4	Arsenal	18	11	4	3	+16	37
5	Tottenham	18	10	6	2	+21	36
6	West Ham	17	8	7	2	+10	31
7	Southampton	17	9	3	5	+12	30
8	Swansea	18	8	5	5	+0	29
9	Liverpool	17	7	7	3	+9	28
10	Newcastle	18	6	7	5	+4	25
11	Stoke	18	7	4	7	-3	25
12	Watford	18	6	5	7	+1	23
13	Chelsea	17	5	7	5	+2	22
14	West Brom	18	6	4	8	-6	22
15	Everton	18	5	5	8	+2	20
16	Norwich	17	5	5	7	-5	20
17	Bournemouth	18	5	4	9	-11	19
18	Sunderland	17	4	6	7	-1	18
19	Crystal Palace	18	5	3	10	-5	18
20	Aston Villa	18	2	4	12	-21	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	18	11	5	2	+15	38
2	Tottenham	17	9	6	2	+18	33
3	Arsenal	18	8	6	4	+9	30
4	West Ham	18	7	7	4	+7	28
5	Man City	17	7	6	4	+6	27
6	Liverpool	18	8	3	7	+2	27
7	Chelsea	17	7	4	6	+5	25
8	Everton	17	5	9	3	+4	24
9	Southampton	18	6	6	6	+0	24
10	Stoke	18	6	5	7	-11	23
11	Man United	17	6	4	7	-4	22
12	Bournemouth	18	6	4	8	-9	22
13	Crystal Palace	18	5	6	7	-5	21
14	Watford	17	6	3	8	-7	21
15	West Brom	18	4	7	7	-8	19
16	Swansea	18	3	5	10	-13	14
17	Sunderland	18	3	5	10	-17	14
18	Norwich	18	3	2	13	-21	11
19	Newcastle	18	2	2	14	-29	8
20	Aston Villa	18	1	3	14	-24	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.