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Premier League

Referee: Neil Swarbrick

Aston Villa

T T T T T

2–4

Full-time

Southampton

S S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

0,2

1,7

Conceded

2,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-2,2

+0,5

This season — Premier League · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 25%

41%

Points per game

0,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

44%

Both score Ø 44%

44%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,9

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

42% Possession 58%

16 Shots 17

7 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 11

0 Offside 4

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 20. · Southampton 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	34	21	10	3	+26	73
2	Tottenham	34	19	11	4	+39	68
3	Man City	35	19	7	9	+32	64
4	Arsenal	34	18	9	7	+24	63
5	Man United	34	17	8	9	+12	59
6	West Ham	34	14	14	6	+14	56
7	Liverpool	33	15	9	9	+13	54
8	Southampton	34	14	9	11	+10	51
9	Stoke	35	13	8	14	-14	47
10	Chelsea	33	11	11	11	+4	44
11	Everton	34	9	14	11	+5	41
12	Watford	34	11	8	15	-7	41
13	Bournemouth	34	11	8	15	-16	41
14	Swansea	34	10	10	14	-11	40
15	West Brom	34	10	10	14	-11	40
16	Crystal Palace	35	10	9	16	-9	39
17	Norwich	34	8	7	19	-25	31
18	Sunderland	33	7	9	17	-18	30
19	Newcastle	34	7	8	19	-26	29
20	Aston Villa	34	3	7	24	-42	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	18	12	1	5	+26	37
2	Man United	17	11	4	2	+16	37
3	Leicester	17	10	6	1	+11	36
4	Tottenham	17	10	5	2	+21	35
5	Arsenal	17	10	4	3	+15	34
6	West Ham	17	8	7	2	+10	31
7	Southampton	17	9	3	5	+12	30
8	Liverpool	16	7	6	3	+9	27
9	Swansea	17	7	5	5	-2	26
10	Stoke	17	7	3	7	-3	24
11	Newcastle	17	5	7	5	+3	22
12	Chelsea	17	5	7	5	+2	22
13	West Brom	17	6	4	7	-3	22
14	Watford	17	5	5	7	+0	20
15	Norwich	17	5	5	7	-5	20
16	Bournemouth	17	5	4	8	-8	19
17	Crystal Palace	18	5	3	10	-5	18
18	Everton	17	4	5	8	+1	17
19	Sunderland	16	4	5	7	-1	17
20	Aston Villa	17	2	4	11	-19	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	17	11	4	2	+15	37
2	Tottenham	17	9	6	2	+18	33
3	Arsenal	17	8	5	4	+9	29
4	Man City	17	7	6	4	+6	27
5	Liverpool	17	8	3	6	+4	27
6	West Ham	17	6	7	4	+4	25
7	Everton	17	5	9	3	+4	24
8	Stoke	18	6	5	7	-11	23
9	Chelsea	16	6	4	6	+2	22
10	Man United	17	6	4	7	-4	22
11	Bournemouth	17	6	4	7	-8	22
12	Southampton	17	5	6	6	-2	21
13	Crystal Palace	17	5	6	6	-4	21
14	Watford	17	6	3	8	-7	21
15	West Brom	17	4	6	7	-8	18
16	Swansea	17	3	5	9	-9	14
17	Sunderland	17	3	4	10	-17	13
18	Norwich	17	3	2	12	-20	11
19	Newcastle	17	2	1	14	-29	7
20	Aston Villa	17	1	3	13	-23	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.