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Premier League
Referee: Kevin Friend
Middlesbrough
S U U U U
1–1
Full-time
Stoke
T T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Stoke
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,7
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
2,3
3,5
Scored
1,3
0,8
Conceded
1,0
2,7
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-1,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

45% Possession 55%
12 Shots 12
2 Shots on target 1
4 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 1
9 Corners 6
1 Offside 2
18 Free kicks against 14
3 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Middlesbrough Stoke
1–0 Álvaro Negredo ⚽
G. Ramírez
11′
22′
🟨 Ryan Shawcross
A. Forshaw 🔁
↦ M. de Roon
22′
Stewart Downing 🟨
29′
Gastón Ramírez 🟨
30′
30′
🟨 Shay Given
Half-time 1–0
48′
🟨 Phil Bardsley
67′
⚽ X. Shaqiri 1–1
69′
🔁 J. Walters
↦ M. Diouf
78′
🔁 J. Allen
↦ Bojan
84′
🟨 Philipp Wollscheid
D. Nugent 🔁
↦ G. Ramírez
88′
Adam Forshaw 🟨
90′
90′
🟨 Marko Arnautović
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Middlesbrough

4-2-3-1
26 Víctor Valdés G
17 Barragán D
3 G. Friend D
6 B. Gibson D
19 S. Downing M
24 Nsue D
27 A. Adomah M
8 A. Clayton M
21 G. Ramírez M
14 M. de Roon M
10 Álvaro Negredo F
Bench (7)
34 A. Forshaw
35 D. Nugent
15 A. Baptiste
1 D. Konstantopoulos
9 J. Rhodes
18 C. Stuani
11 V. Fischer

Coach: Karanka

Stoke

4-2-3-1
24 S. Given G
3 E. Pieters D
2 P. Bardsley D
17 R. Shawcross D
26 P. Wollscheid D
6 G. Whelan M
22 X. Shaqiri M
21 G. Imbula M
27 Bojan M
10 M. Arnautović M
18 M. Diouf F
Bench (7)
19 J. Walters
4 J. Allen
16 C. Adam
25 P. Crouch
20 G. Cameron
29 J. Haugaard
5 Muniesa

Coach: M. Hughes

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Kevin Friend · 127 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
17,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.