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Championship
Referee: David Coote
Burton Albion
T
1–2
Full-time
Bristol City
T U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burton Albion Bristol City
Last 6 — all competitions · 1/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
100%
67%
Both score Ø 84%
100%
67%
Average goals
7,0
3,2
Scored
3,0
1,8
Conceded
4,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,5
This season — Championship · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
7,0
3,0
Scored
3,0
2,0
Conceded
4,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

55% Possession 45%
17 Shots 12
5 Shots on target 4
4 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
7 Corners 8
10 Free kicks against 17
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Burton Albion 16. · Bristol City 5. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Brighton 2 1 1 0 +3 4
2 Norwich 1 1 0 0 +3 3
3 QPR 1 1 0 0 +3 3
4 Ipswich 1 1 0 0 +2 3
5 Bristol City 1 1 0 0 +1 3
6 Huddersfield 1 1 0 0 +1 3
7 Fulham 1 1 0 0 +1 3
8 Reading 1 1 0 0 +1 3
9 Sheffield Weds 1 1 0 0 +1 3
10 Nott'm Forest 2 1 0 1 -2 3
11 Rotherham 1 0 1 0 +0 1
12 Wolves 1 0 1 0 +0 1
13 Birmingham 1 0 1 0 +0 1
14 Cardiff 1 0 1 0 +0 1
15 Derby 1 0 1 0 +0 1
16 Burton Albion 1 0 0 1 -1 0
17 Wigan 1 0 0 1 -1 0
18 Brentford 1 0 0 1 -1 0
19 Newcastle 1 0 0 1 -1 0
20 Preston 1 0 0 1 -1 0
21 Aston Villa 1 0 0 1 -1 0
22 Barnsley 1 0 0 1 -2 0
23 Blackburn 1 0 0 1 -3 0
24 Leeds 1 0 0 1 -3 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Burton Albion Bristol City
35′
🟨 Lee Tomlin
44′
⚽ T. Abraham 0–1
C. O'Dowda
Half-time 0–1
Tom Flanagan 🟨
66′
S. Beavon 🔁
↦ T. Flanagan
70′
70′
🔁 B. Reid
↦ J. Brownhill
T. Naylor 🔁
↦ L. Williamson
73′
78′
🔁 A. Wilbraham
↦ L. Tomlin
78′
🔁 M. Pack
↦ C. ODowda
1–1 T. Naylor ⚽
S. Beavon
88′
95′
⚽ T. Abraham 1–2
J. Kodjia
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Burton Albion

5-3-2
1 J. McLaughlin G
6 B. Turner D
5 K. McFadzean D
4 J. Mousinho D
2 T. Flanagan D
7 L. Williamson M
11 L. Dyer M
36 J. Irvine M
16 M. Palmer M
10 L. Akins F
8 C. O'Grady F
Bench (7)
9 S. Beavon
15 T. Naylor
19 H. Choudhury
12 C. Butcher
13 S. Bywater
14 D. McCrory
22 M. Harness

Coach: N. Clough

Bristol City

4-4-2
12 R. O'Donnell G
2 M. Little D
4 A. Flint D
23 H. Magnússon D
3 J. Bryan D
6 G. O'Neil M
11 C. O'Dowda M
8 J. Brownhill M
10 L. Tomlin M
22 J. Kodjia F
9 T. Abraham F
Bench (7)
14 B. Reid
18 A. Wilbraham
21 M. Pack
13 S. Golbourne
15 L. Freeman
24 M. O’Leary
27 A. Matthews

Coach: L. Johnson

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

David Coote · 99 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.