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Premier League

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Watford

S U S T S

0–1

Full-time

Stoke

S S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,8

This season — Premier League · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 34%

42%

25%

Points per game

1,5

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

58%

33%

Both score Ø 63%

67%

58%

Average goals

3,1

2,7

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

1,7

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

49% Possession 51%

11 Shots 14

2 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 3

1 Offside 6

24 Free kicks against 14

5 Yellow cards 0

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 8. · Stoke 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	13	10	1	2	+19	31
2	Liverpool	13	9	3	1	+18	30
3	Man City	13	9	3	1	+17	30
4	Arsenal	12	7	4	1	+13	25
5	Tottenham	13	6	6	1	+9	24
6	Man United	12	5	4	3	+3	19
7	Everton	12	5	4	3	+2	19
8	Watford	12	5	3	4	-3	18
9	West Brom	13	4	5	4	+1	17
10	Bournemouth	12	4	3	5	-2	15
11	Southampton	12	3	5	4	+0	14
12	Burnley	13	4	2	7	-9	14
13	Leicester	13	3	4	6	-6	13
14	Stoke	12	3	4	5	-6	13
15	Middlesbrough	13	2	6	5	-3	12
16	Crystal Palace	13	3	2	8	-5	11
17	West Ham	12	3	2	7	-10	11
18	Hull	13	3	2	8	-17	11
19	Swansea	13	2	3	8	-10	9
20	Sunderland	13	2	2	9	-11	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	7	6	0	1	+16	18
2	Liverpool	6	5	1	0	+15	16
3	Tottenham	6	4	2	0	+5	14
4	Burnley	8	4	1	3	+3	13
5	Man City	6	3	3	0	+7	12
6	Leicester	7	3	3	1	+5	12
7	Everton	6	3	3	0	+5	12
8	Arsenal	6	3	2	1	+4	11
9	Bournemouth	6	3	1	2	+4	10
10	Watford	6	3	1	2	+1	10
11	Man United	6	2	3	1	+4	9
12	Southampton	6	2	3	1	+1	9
13	West Brom	6	2	2	2	+1	8
14	West Ham	6	2	2	2	-3	8
15	Stoke	6	2	1	3	-4	7
16	Hull	7	2	1	4	-6	7
17	Swansea	7	1	2	4	-6	5
18	Crystal Palace	6	1	1	4	-2	4
19	Middlesbrough	6	1	1	4	-2	4
20	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	6	0	1	+10	18
2	Arsenal	6	4	2	0	+9	14
3	Liverpool	7	4	2	1	+3	14
4	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+3	13
5	Tottenham	7	2	4	1	+4	10
6	Man United	6	3	1	2	-1	10
7	West Brom	7	2	3	2	+0	9
8	Middlesbrough	7	1	5	1	-1	8
9	Watford	6	2	2	2	-4	8
10	Crystal Palace	7	2	1	4	-3	7
11	Everton	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	Stoke	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Southampton	6	1	2	3	-1	5
14	Bournemouth	6	1	2	3	-6	5
15	Swansea	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Sunderland	7	1	1	5	-6	4
17	Hull	6	1	1	4	-11	4
18	West Ham	6	1	0	5	-7	3
19	Leicester	6	0	1	5	-11	1
20	Burnley	5	0	1	4	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.