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Premier League

Referee: Michael Oliver

Leicester

U T T U T

4–2

Full-time

Man City

S U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leicester Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 92%

100%

83%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 43%

21%

64%

Points per game

0,9

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

79%

71%

Both score Ø 75%

71%

79%

Average goals

2,9

3,2

Scored

1,2

2,1

Conceded

1,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

22% Possession 78%

11 Shots 19

6 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 7

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 11

0 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leicester 16. · Man City 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	15	10	4	1	+21	34
2	Chelsea	14	11	1	2	+21	34
3	Liverpool	14	9	3	2	+17	30
4	Man City	14	9	3	2	+15	30
5	Tottenham	14	7	6	1	+14	27
6	Man United	14	5	6	3	+3	21
7	Watford	15	6	3	6	-5	21
8	West Brom	14	5	5	4	+3	20
9	Everton	15	5	5	5	+0	20
10	Stoke	15	5	4	6	-5	19
11	Bournemouth	15	5	3	7	-4	18
12	Southampton	14	4	5	5	-2	17
13	Burnley	15	5	2	8	-10	17
14	Crystal Palace	15	4	3	8	-2	15
15	Middlesbrough	14	3	6	5	-2	15
16	Leicester	14	3	4	7	-7	13
17	Swansea	15	3	3	9	-12	12
18	West Ham	14	3	3	8	-14	12
19	Hull	15	3	3	9	-18	12
20	Sunderland	15	3	2	10	-13	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	7	6	0	1	+16	18
2	Tottenham	7	5	2	0	+10	17
3	Arsenal	8	5	2	1	+8	17
4	Liverpool	6	5	1	0	+15	16
5	Burnley	9	5	1	3	+4	16
6	Bournemouth	7	4	1	2	+5	13
7	Everton	7	3	4	0	+5	13
8	Watford	8	4	1	3	+1	13
9	Man City	7	3	3	1	+5	12
10	Leicester	7	3	3	1	+5	12
11	Southampton	7	3	3	1	+2	12
12	West Brom	7	3	2	2	+3	11
13	Man United	7	2	4	1	+4	10
14	Stoke	7	3	1	3	-2	10
15	Swansea	8	2	2	4	-3	8
16	Hull	8	2	2	4	-6	8
17	West Ham	7	2	2	3	-7	8
18	Crystal Palace	7	2	1	4	+1	7
19	Middlesbrough	7	2	1	4	-1	7
20	Sunderland	7	2	1	4	-4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	6	0	1	+10	18
2	Arsenal	7	5	2	0	+13	17
3	Chelsea	7	5	1	1	+5	16
4	Liverpool	8	4	2	2	+2	14
5	Man United	7	3	2	2	-1	11
6	Tottenham	7	2	4	1	+4	10
7	West Brom	7	2	3	2	+0	9
8	Stoke	8	2	3	3	-3	9
9	Middlesbrough	7	1	5	1	-1	8
10	Crystal Palace	8	2	2	4	-3	8
11	Watford	7	2	2	3	-6	8
12	Everton	8	2	1	5	-5	7
13	Southampton	7	1	2	4	-4	5
14	Bournemouth	8	1	2	5	-9	5
15	West Ham	7	1	1	5	-7	4
16	Swansea	7	1	1	5	-9	4
17	Sunderland	8	1	1	6	-9	4
18	Hull	7	1	1	5	-12	4
19	Leicester	7	0	1	6	-12	1
20	Burnley	6	0	1	5	-14	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.