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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Man City

U S U S S

1–3

Full-time

Chelsea

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

2,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,8

2,8

Conceded

0,8

0,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+2,7

This season — Premier League · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 73%

69%

77%

Points per game

2,3

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 73%

69%

77%

Both score Ø 58%

77%

38%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

2,2

Conceded

0,9

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

60% Possession 40%

14 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 3

2 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 3. · Chelsea 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	13	10	1	2	+19	31
2	Liverpool	13	9	3	1	+18	30
3	Man City	13	9	3	1	+17	30
4	Arsenal	13	8	4	1	+15	28
5	Tottenham	13	6	6	1	+9	24
6	Man United	13	5	5	3	+3	20
7	Everton	13	5	4	4	+1	19
8	Watford	13	5	3	5	-4	18
9	West Brom	13	4	5	4	+1	17
10	Southampton	13	4	5	4	+1	17
11	Stoke	13	4	4	5	-5	16
12	Bournemouth	13	4	3	6	-4	15
13	Burnley	13	4	2	7	-9	14
14	Leicester	13	3	4	6	-6	13
15	Middlesbrough	13	2	6	5	-3	12
16	West Ham	13	3	3	7	-10	12
17	Crystal Palace	13	3	2	8	-5	11
18	Hull	13	3	2	8	-17	11
19	Swansea	13	2	3	8	-10	9
20	Sunderland	13	2	2	9	-11	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	7	6	0	1	+16	18
2	Liverpool	6	5	1	0	+15	16
3	Arsenal	7	4	2	1	+6	14
4	Tottenham	6	4	2	0	+5	14
5	Burnley	8	4	1	3	+3	13
6	Man City	6	3	3	0	+7	12
7	Leicester	7	3	3	1	+5	12
8	Everton	6	3	3	0	+5	12
9	Southampton	7	3	3	1	+2	12
10	Bournemouth	6	3	1	2	+4	10
11	Man United	7	2	4	1	+4	10
12	Watford	7	3	1	3	+0	10
13	West Brom	6	2	2	2	+1	8
14	West Ham	6	2	2	2	-3	8
15	Stoke	6	2	1	3	-4	7
16	Hull	7	2	1	4	-6	7
17	Swansea	7	1	2	4	-6	5
18	Crystal Palace	6	1	1	4	-2	4
19	Middlesbrough	6	1	1	4	-2	4
20	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	6	0	1	+10	18
2	Arsenal	6	4	2	0	+9	14
3	Liverpool	7	4	2	1	+3	14
4	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+3	13
5	Tottenham	7	2	4	1	+4	10
6	Man United	6	3	1	2	-1	10
7	West Brom	7	2	3	2	+0	9
8	Stoke	7	2	3	2	-1	9
9	Middlesbrough	7	1	5	1	-1	8
10	Watford	6	2	2	2	-4	8
11	Crystal Palace	7	2	1	4	-3	7
12	Everton	7	2	1	4	-4	7
13	Southampton	6	1	2	3	-1	5
14	Bournemouth	7	1	2	4	-8	5
15	Swansea	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Sunderland	7	1	1	5	-6	4
17	West Ham	7	1	1	5	-7	4
18	Hull	6	1	1	4	-11	4
19	Leicester	6	0	1	5	-11	1
20	Burnley	5	0	1	4	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.