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Premier League

Referee: Mike Dean

Arsenal

S S S S S

0–0

Full-time

Middlesbrough

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

2,2

Scored

2,7

0,7

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,8

This season — Premier League · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 44%

75%

13%

Points per game

2,4

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 69%

63%

75%

Average goals

3,5

2,3

Scored

2,4

0,9

Conceded

1,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

74% Possession 26%

10 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 3

5 Offside 2

6 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 2. · Middlesbrough 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	6	1	1	+11	19
2	Arsenal	8	6	1	1	+10	19
3	Tottenham	9	5	4	0	+9	19
4	Liverpool	8	5	2	1	+8	17
5	Chelsea	8	5	1	2	+6	16
6	Everton	8	4	3	1	+6	15
7	Man United	8	4	2	2	+5	14
8	Southampton	8	3	3	2	+3	12
9	Bournemouth	9	3	3	3	+0	12
10	Crystal Palace	8	3	2	3	+2	11
11	Watford	8	3	2	3	+0	11
12	West Brom	8	2	4	2	+1	10
13	Leicester	8	2	2	4	-6	8
14	Burnley	8	2	1	5	-6	7
15	West Ham	8	2	1	5	-8	7
16	Hull	8	2	1	5	-12	7
17	Middlesbrough	8	1	3	4	-4	6
18	Stoke	8	1	3	4	-9	6
19	Swansea	8	1	1	6	-7	4
20	Sunderland	8	0	2	6	-9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	4	3	1	0	+7	10
2	Bournemouth	5	3	1	1	+5	10
3	Tottenham	4	3	1	0	+4	10
4	Chelsea	4	3	0	1	+6	9
5	Arsenal	4	3	0	1	+4	9
6	Leicester	4	2	2	0	+4	8
7	Southampton	4	2	2	0	+3	8
8	Everton	4	2	2	0	+3	8
9	Liverpool	3	2	1	0	+7	7
10	Man United	4	2	1	1	+4	7
11	Burnley	5	2	1	2	+2	7
12	West Brom	4	1	2	1	+1	5
13	Crystal Palace	4	1	1	2	+1	4
14	Watford	4	1	1	2	-1	4
15	West Ham	4	1	1	2	-4	4
16	Stoke	4	1	1	2	-5	4
17	Hull	4	1	0	3	-5	3
18	Middlesbrough	4	0	1	3	-3	1
19	Sunderland	4	0	1	3	-5	1
20	Swansea	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	Liverpool	5	3	1	1	+1	10
3	Tottenham	5	2	3	0	+5	9
4	Man City	4	3	0	1	+4	9
5	Everton	4	2	1	1	+3	7
6	Watford	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Crystal Palace	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Man United	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+0	7
10	West Brom	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Middlesbrough	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Southampton	4	1	1	2	+0	4
13	Hull	4	1	1	2	-7	4
14	Swansea	4	1	0	3	-2	3
15	West Ham	4	1	0	3	-4	3
16	Stoke	4	0	2	2	-4	2
17	Bournemouth	4	0	2	2	-5	2
18	Sunderland	4	0	1	3	-4	1
19	Burnley	3	0	0	3	-8	0
20	Leicester	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.