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La Liga

Referee: Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo

Alaves

S S T T T

2–1

Full-time

Villarreal

S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,3

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,7

This season — La Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 40%

32%

48%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

42%

35%

Both score Ø 44%

45%

42%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

0,9

1,5

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

47% Possession 53%

11 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 11

1 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Alaves 12. · Villarreal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	31	23	6	2	+49	75
2	Barcelona	32	22	6	4	+61	72
3	Ath Madrid	32	19	8	5	+35	65
4	Sevilla	32	18	8	6	+17	62
5	Villarreal	31	15	9	7	+21	54
6	Ath Bilbao	32	16	5	11	+8	53
7	Sociedad	32	16	4	12	+3	52
8	Eibar	32	14	8	10	+8	50
9	Espanol	32	13	10	9	+2	49
10	Celta	31	13	5	13	-3	44
11	Valencia	32	11	7	14	-7	40
12	Alaves	31	10	10	11	-9	40
13	Las Palmas	32	10	8	14	-6	38
14	Betis	32	9	7	16	-16	34
15	Malaga	32	8	9	15	-13	33
16	La Coruna	32	7	10	15	-15	31
17	Leganes	32	6	9	17	-23	27
18	Sp Gijon	32	5	7	20	-30	22
19	Granada	32	4	8	20	-41	20
20	Osasuna	32	3	8	21	-41	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	16	12	4	0	+25	40
2	Barcelona	16	12	3	1	+36	39
3	Ath Bilbao	17	12	3	2	+17	39
4	Ath Madrid	16	12	2	2	+24	38
5	Sevilla	15	11	3	1	+15	36
6	Las Palmas	16	9	5	2	+16	32
7	Villarreal	16	9	3	4	+14	30
8	Eibar	16	9	3	4	+8	30
9	Espanol	16	8	5	3	+9	29
10	Celta	15	9	1	5	+5	28
11	Sociedad	16	8	4	4	+4	28
12	Valencia	16	7	4	5	+0	25
13	Betis	17	6	6	5	+1	24
14	La Coruna	16	6	5	5	+6	23
15	Malaga	15	7	2	6	+2	23
16	Alaves	15	4	7	4	-6	19
17	Granada	16	4	4	8	-8	16
18	Leganes	16	3	5	8	-8	14
19	Sp Gijon	16	4	2	10	-13	14
20	Osasuna	16	1	5	10	-17	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	15	11	2	2	+24	35
2	Barcelona	16	10	3	3	+25	33
3	Ath Madrid	16	7	6	3	+11	27
4	Sevilla	17	7	5	5	+2	26
5	Villarreal	15	6	6	3	+7	24
6	Sociedad	16	8	0	8	-1	24
7	Alaves	16	6	3	7	-3	21
8	Eibar	16	5	5	6	+0	20
9	Espanol	16	5	5	6	-7	20
10	Celta	16	4	4	8	-8	16
11	Valencia	16	4	3	9	-7	15
12	Ath Bilbao	15	4	2	9	-9	14
13	Leganes	16	3	4	9	-15	13
14	Malaga	17	1	7	9	-15	10
15	Betis	15	3	1	11	-17	10
16	Osasuna	16	2	3	11	-24	9
17	Sp Gijon	16	1	5	10	-17	8
18	La Coruna	16	1	5	10	-21	8
19	Las Palmas	16	1	3	12	-22	6
20	Granada	16	0	4	12	-33	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.