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Premier League

Referee: Kevin Friend

Everton

S S U T T

1–0

Full-time

Watford

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Everton Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,3

0,5

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,2

This season — Premier League · 36/35 matches

Win Ø 38%

44%

31%

Points per game

1,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

50%

46%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

49%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,1

Conceded

1,1

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

62% Possession 38%

15 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 8

2 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Everton 7. · Watford 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	35	27	3	5	+46	84
2	Tottenham	35	23	8	4	+48	77
3	Liverpool	36	20	10	6	+29	70
4	Man City	35	20	9	6	+33	69
5	Arsenal	35	20	6	9	+26	66
6	Man United	35	17	14	4	+24	65
7	Everton	36	16	10	10	+19	58
8	West Brom	35	12	9	14	-4	45
9	Leicester	35	12	7	16	-9	43
10	Southampton	35	11	9	15	-7	42
11	Bournemouth	36	11	9	16	-13	42
12	West Ham	36	11	9	16	-14	42
13	Stoke	36	10	11	15	-13	41
14	Burnley	36	11	7	18	-14	40
15	Watford	35	11	7	17	-21	40
16	Crystal Palace	36	11	5	20	-15	38
17	Swansea	36	10	5	21	-28	35
18	Hull	36	9	7	20	-33	34
19	Middlesbrough	36	5	13	18	-22	28
20	Sunderland	35	6	6	23	-32	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	18	16	2	0	+37	50
2	Chelsea	17	15	0	2	+33	45
3	Everton	18	12	4	2	+25	40
4	Arsenal	17	12	3	2	+19	39
5	Liverpool	18	11	5	2	+24	38
6	Man City	17	9	7	1	+17	34
7	Leicester	17	10	3	4	+11	33
8	Burnley	18	10	3	5	+7	33
9	Man United	18	7	10	1	+12	31
10	West Brom	18	9	2	7	+6	29
11	Bournemouth	18	8	4	6	+5	28
12	Watford	18	8	4	6	+1	28
13	Hull	18	8	4	6	-1	28
14	Stoke	18	7	6	5	+3	27
15	West Ham	18	7	4	7	-8	25
16	Swansea	18	7	3	8	-8	24
17	Southampton	17	6	5	6	-3	23
18	Middlesbrough	18	4	6	8	-5	18
19	Crystal Palace	18	5	2	11	-5	17
20	Sunderland	18	3	5	10	-16	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	18	12	3	3	+13	39
2	Man City	18	11	2	5	+16	35
3	Man United	17	10	4	3	+12	34
4	Liverpool	18	9	5	4	+5	32
5	Tottenham	17	7	6	4	+11	27
6	Arsenal	18	8	3	7	+7	27
7	Crystal Palace	18	6	3	9	-10	21
8	Southampton	18	5	4	9	-4	19
9	Everton	18	4	6	8	-6	18
10	West Ham	18	4	5	9	-6	17
11	West Brom	17	3	7	7	-10	16
12	Stoke	18	3	5	10	-16	14
13	Bournemouth	18	3	5	10	-18	14
14	Watford	17	3	3	11	-22	12
15	Swansea	18	3	2	13	-20	11
16	Sunderland	17	3	1	13	-16	10
17	Middlesbrough	18	1	7	10	-17	10
18	Leicester	18	2	4	12	-20	10
19	Burnley	18	1	4	13	-21	7
20	Hull	18	1	3	14	-32	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.