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Premier League

Referee: Lee Mason

Burnley

U T S S S

0–1

Full-time

Arsenal

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,7

3,5

Scored

1,0

2,2

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,8

This season — Premier League · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 54%

50%

58%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

17%

58%

Both score Ø 38%

33%

42%

Average goals

1,8

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

36% Possession 64%

8 Shots 18

2 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 7

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 5

4 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 7. · Arsenal 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	11	1	0	+33	34
2	Man United	13	9	2	2	+22	29
3	Chelsea	13	8	2	3	+13	26
4	Tottenham	13	7	3	3	+11	24
5	Liverpool	13	6	5	2	+7	23
6	Arsenal	12	7	1	4	+6	22
7	Burnley	12	6	4	2	+3	22
8	Watford	13	6	3	4	+1	21
9	Brighton	13	4	4	5	-1	16
10	Southampton	13	4	4	5	-2	16
11	Huddersfield	12	4	3	5	-9	15
12	Leicester	13	3	5	5	-2	14
13	Bournemouth	13	4	2	7	-3	14
14	Newcastle	13	4	2	7	-6	14
15	Stoke	13	3	4	6	-10	13
16	Everton	13	3	3	7	-15	12
17	West Brom	13	2	5	6	-9	11
18	West Ham	13	2	4	7	-14	10
19	Swansea	13	2	3	8	-8	9
20	Crystal Palace	13	2	2	9	-17	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	7	7	0	0	+19	21
2	Arsenal	6	6	0	0	+11	18
3	Man City	6	5	1	0	+20	16
4	Liverpool	7	4	3	0	+11	15
5	Tottenham	7	3	3	1	+4	12
6	Burnley	6	3	2	1	+3	11
7	Southampton	8	3	2	3	+1	11
8	Huddersfield	6	3	2	1	-1	11
9	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	+3	10
10	Newcastle	7	3	1	3	-1	10
11	Brighton	6	2	3	1	+1	9
12	Everton	6	3	0	3	-4	9
13	Stoke	6	2	2	2	-3	8
14	Crystal Palace	7	2	2	3	-4	8
15	Watford	6	2	2	2	-4	8
16	Bournemouth	6	2	1	3	+1	7
17	Leicester	6	2	1	3	+0	7
18	West Ham	6	2	1	3	-4	7
19	West Brom	6	1	3	2	-4	6
20	Swansea	7	1	1	5	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	6	6	0	0	+13	18
2	Chelsea	7	5	1	1	+10	16
3	Watford	7	4	1	2	+5	13
4	Tottenham	6	4	0	2	+7	12
5	Burnley	6	3	2	1	+0	11
6	Man United	6	2	2	2	+3	8
7	Liverpool	6	2	2	2	-4	8
8	Leicester	7	1	4	2	-2	7
9	Brighton	7	2	1	4	-2	7
10	Bournemouth	7	2	1	4	-4	7
11	Swansea	6	1	2	3	-2	5
12	Southampton	5	1	2	2	-3	5
13	West Brom	7	1	2	4	-5	5
14	Stoke	7	1	2	4	-7	5
15	Arsenal	6	1	1	4	-5	4
16	Newcastle	6	1	1	4	-5	4
17	Huddersfield	6	1	1	4	-8	4
18	West Ham	7	0	3	4	-10	3
19	Everton	7	0	3	4	-11	3
20	Crystal Palace	6	0	0	6	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.