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Premier League

Referee: Michael Oliver

Man City

S S S S S

3–1

Full-time

Arsenal

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

100%

67%

Points per game

3,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

4,8

2,8

Scored

4,2

2,0

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+3,5

+1,2

This season — Premier League · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 75%

90%

60%

Points per game

2,8

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

70%

60%

Both score Ø 40%

40%

Average goals

4,1

3,2

Scored

3,5

1,9

Conceded

0,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,9

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

58% Possession 42%

9 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 5

3 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 1. · Arsenal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	9	1	0	+29	28
2	Man United	10	7	2	1	+19	23
3	Tottenham	11	7	2	2	+13	23
4	Chelsea	10	6	1	3	+8	19
5	Arsenal	10	6	1	3	+6	19
6	Liverpool	11	5	4	2	+4	19
7	Burnley	11	5	4	2	+1	19
8	Brighton	11	4	3	4	+0	15
9	Watford	10	4	3	3	-3	15
10	Huddersfield	11	4	3	4	-5	15
11	Newcastle	11	4	2	5	+0	14
12	Leicester	11	3	4	4	+0	13
13	Southampton	11	3	4	4	-2	13
14	Stoke	11	3	3	5	-9	12
15	West Brom	11	2	4	5	-5	10
16	Bournemouth	11	3	1	7	-7	10
17	West Ham	11	2	3	6	-12	9
18	Swansea	11	2	2	7	-6	8
19	Everton	10	2	2	6	-13	8
20	Crystal Palace	11	1	1	9	-18	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	5	5	0	0	+15	15
2	Arsenal	5	5	0	0	+9	15
3	Man City	5	4	1	0	+18	13
4	Liverpool	5	3	2	0	+8	11
5	Tottenham	6	3	2	1	+4	11
6	Huddersfield	6	3	2	1	-1	11
7	Newcastle	6	3	1	2	+2	10
8	Brighton	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Burnley	5	2	2	1	+1	8
10	Southampton	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Stoke	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Leicester	5	2	1	2	+2	7
13	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	+2	7
14	West Brom	5	1	3	1	+0	6
15	West Ham	5	2	0	3	-4	6
16	Everton	5	2	0	3	-5	6
17	Watford	5	1	2	2	-6	5
18	Bournemouth	5	1	1	3	-3	4
19	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	-5	4
20	Swansea	6	1	0	5	-6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	5	5	0	0	+11	15
2	Tottenham	5	4	0	1	+9	12
3	Chelsea	5	4	0	1	+6	12
4	Burnley	6	3	2	1	+0	11
5	Watford	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Man United	5	2	2	1	+4	8
7	Liverpool	6	2	2	2	-4	8
8	Brighton	6	2	1	3	-1	7
9	Leicester	6	1	3	2	-2	6
10	Bournemouth	6	2	0	4	-4	6
11	Swansea	5	1	2	2	+0	5
12	Southampton	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Newcastle	5	1	1	3	-2	4
14	Arsenal	5	1	1	3	-3	4
15	Huddersfield	5	1	1	3	-4	4
16	West Brom	6	1	1	4	-5	4
17	Stoke	5	1	1	3	-6	4
18	West Ham	6	0	3	3	-8	3
19	Everton	5	0	2	3	-8	2
20	Crystal Palace	6	0	0	6	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.