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Premier League

Referee: Mark Clattenburg

Man City

S S S T U

1–1

Full-time

Southampton

T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,8

This season — Premier League · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 57%

75%

38%

Points per game

2,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

75%

38%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

3,4

2,1

Scored

2,4

1,3

Conceded

1,0

0,9

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

64% Possession 36%

14 Shots 6

3 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

10 Corners 3

1 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 3. · Southampton 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	9	6	2	1	+10	20
2	Liverpool	9	6	2	1	+9	20
3	Man City	8	6	1	1	+11	19
4	Tottenham	9	5	4	0	+9	19
5	Chelsea	8	5	1	2	+6	16
6	Everton	9	4	3	2	+5	15
7	Man United	8	4	2	2	+5	14
8	Southampton	8	3	3	2	+3	12
9	Watford	9	3	3	3	+0	12
10	Bournemouth	9	3	3	3	+0	12
11	Crystal Palace	9	3	2	4	+0	11
12	Leicester	9	3	2	4	-4	11
13	West Brom	9	2	4	3	+0	10
14	Burnley	9	3	1	5	-5	10
15	West Ham	9	3	1	5	-7	10
16	Stoke	9	2	3	4	-7	9
17	Middlesbrough	9	1	4	4	-4	7
18	Hull	9	2	1	6	-14	7
19	Swansea	9	1	2	6	-7	5
20	Sunderland	9	0	2	7	-10	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	5	3	2	0	+6	11
2	Liverpool	4	3	1	0	+8	10
3	Man City	4	3	1	0	+7	10
4	Bournemouth	5	3	1	1	+5	10
5	Arsenal	5	3	1	1	+4	10
6	Tottenham	4	3	1	0	+4	10
7	Burnley	6	3	1	2	+3	10
8	Chelsea	4	3	0	1	+6	9
9	Southampton	4	2	2	0	+3	8
10	Everton	4	2	2	0	+3	8
11	Man United	4	2	1	1	+4	7
12	West Ham	5	2	1	2	-3	7
13	West Brom	4	1	2	1	+1	5
14	Crystal Palace	4	1	1	2	+1	4
15	Watford	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Stoke	4	1	1	2	-5	4
17	Hull	5	1	0	4	-7	3
18	Swansea	5	0	2	3	-5	2
19	Middlesbrough	4	0	1	3	-3	1
20	Sunderland	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	Liverpool	5	3	1	1	+1	10
3	Tottenham	5	2	3	0	+5	9
4	Man City	4	3	0	1	+4	9
5	Watford	5	2	2	1	+1	8
6	Everton	5	2	1	2	+2	7
7	Man United	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	-1	7
10	Middlesbrough	5	1	3	1	-1	6
11	West Brom	5	1	2	2	-1	5
12	Stoke	5	1	2	2	-2	5
13	Southampton	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Hull	4	1	1	2	-7	4
15	Swansea	4	1	0	3	-2	3
16	West Ham	4	1	0	3	-4	3
17	Bournemouth	4	0	2	2	-5	2
18	Sunderland	5	0	1	4	-5	1
19	Burnley	3	0	0	3	-8	0
20	Leicester	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.