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Premier League

Referee: Chris Kavanagh

Southampton

T S T U U

1–4

Full-time

Leicester

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 32%

25%

38%

Points per game

1,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

38%

44%

Both score Ø 57%

50%

63%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

53% Possession 47%

11 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 11

2 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 9

3 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 11. · Leicester 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	15	1	0	+37	46
2	Man United	16	11	2	3	+25	35
3	Chelsea	17	11	2	4	+17	35
4	Burnley	17	9	4	4	+4	31
5	Liverpool	16	8	6	2	+14	30
6	Arsenal	16	9	2	5	+10	29
7	Tottenham	16	8	4	4	+14	28
8	Leicester	16	6	5	5	+1	23
9	Watford	17	6	4	7	-3	22
10	Everton	16	5	4	7	-9	19
11	Southampton	16	4	6	6	-3	18
12	Huddersfield	17	5	3	9	-17	18
13	Brighton	16	4	5	7	-7	17
14	Bournemouth	16	4	4	8	-4	16
15	Stoke	17	4	4	9	-17	16
16	Newcastle	16	4	3	9	-9	15
17	Crystal Palace	17	3	5	9	-16	14
18	West Brom	16	2	7	7	-10	13
19	West Ham	16	3	4	9	-18	13
20	Swansea	16	3	3	10	-9	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	7	1	0	+22	22
2	Man United	8	7	0	1	+18	21
3	Arsenal	8	7	0	1	+14	21
4	Burnley	9	5	2	2	+4	17
5	Liverpool	8	4	4	0	+11	16
6	Chelsea	8	5	1	2	+6	16
7	Tottenham	8	4	3	1	+8	15
8	Everton	8	5	0	3	+2	15
9	Huddersfield	9	4	2	3	-2	14
10	Leicester	8	4	1	3	+2	13
11	Southampton	9	3	3	3	+1	12
12	Crystal Palace	9	3	3	3	-3	12
13	Stoke	8	3	2	3	-5	11
14	Newcastle	8	3	1	4	-2	10
15	Brighton	8	2	4	2	-3	10
16	West Ham	7	3	1	3	-3	10
17	Watford	8	2	3	3	-6	9
18	Bournemouth	8	2	2	4	+0	8
19	West Brom	8	1	5	2	-4	8
20	Swansea	8	2	1	5	-5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	8	0	0	+15	24
2	Chelsea	9	6	1	2	+11	19
3	Man United	8	4	2	2	+7	14
4	Liverpool	8	4	2	2	+3	14
5	Burnley	8	4	2	2	+0	14
6	Tottenham	8	4	1	3	+6	13
7	Watford	9	4	1	4	+3	13
8	Leicester	8	2	4	2	-1	10
9	Arsenal	8	2	2	4	-4	8
10	Bournemouth	8	2	2	4	-4	8
11	Brighton	8	2	1	5	-4	7
12	Southampton	7	1	3	3	-4	6
13	Swansea	8	1	2	5	-4	5
14	West Brom	8	1	2	5	-6	5
15	Newcastle	8	1	2	5	-7	5
16	Stoke	9	1	2	6	-12	5
17	Everton	8	0	4	4	-11	4
18	Huddersfield	8	1	1	6	-15	4
19	West Ham	9	0	3	6	-15	3
20	Crystal Palace	8	0	2	6	-13	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.