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Premier League
Referee: Robert Madley
Southampton
T T S T U
1–1
Full-time
Arsenal
T S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Arsenal
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,8
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,7
3,2
Scored
1,2
2,0
Conceded
1,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,8
This season — Premier League · 15/15 matches
Win Ø 44%
27%
60%
Points per game
1,1
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
40%
60%
Both score Ø 44%
47%
40%
Average goals
2,2
3,2
Scored
1,0
1,9
Conceded
1,2
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

33% Possession 67%
6 Shots 11
3 Shots on target 6
1 Blocked shots 1
5 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 5
4 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Southampton 12. · Arsenal 6.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man City 15 14 1 0 +36 43
2 Man United 15 11 2 2 +26 35
3 Chelsea 16 10 2 4 +15 32
4 Liverpool 15 8 5 2 +14 29
5 Tottenham 16 8 4 4 +14 28
6 Arsenal 15 9 1 5 +10 28
7 Burnley 16 8 4 4 +3 28
8 Leicester 16 6 5 5 +1 23
9 Watford 16 6 4 6 -2 22
10 Everton 15 5 3 7 -9 18
11 Huddersfield 16 5 3 8 -15 18
12 Southampton 15 4 5 6 -3 17
13 Brighton 16 4 5 7 -7 17
14 Bournemouth 16 4 4 8 -4 16
15 Stoke 16 4 4 8 -16 16
16 Newcastle 16 4 3 9 -9 15
17 West Brom 16 2 7 7 -10 13
18 West Ham 16 3 4 9 -18 13
19 Swansea 16 3 3 10 -9 12
20 Crystal Palace 16 2 5 9 -17 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Southampton Arsenal
1–0 C. Austin
D. Tadić
3′
Half-time 1–0
64′
🔁 D. Welbeck
↦ P. Mertesacker
69′
🔁 J. Wilshere
↦ G. Xhaka
72′
🔁 O. Giroud
↦ A. Lacazette
S. Boufal 🔁
↦ N. Redmond
74′
78′
🟨 Héctor Bellerín
Jack Stephens 🟨
82′
Oriol Romeu 🟨
84′
M. Gabbiadini 🔁
↦ C. Austin
86′
S. Davis 🔁
↦ D. Tadić
88′
88′
O. Giroud 1–1
A. Sánchez
90′
🟨 Jack Wilshere
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Southampton

4-2-3-1
44 F. Forster G
3 M. Yoshida D
21 R. Bertrand D
5 J. Stephens D
17 V. van Dijk D
11 D. Tadić M
14 Oriol Romeu M
22 N. Redmond M
23 P. Højbjerg M
16 J. Ward-Prowse M
10 C. Austin F
Bench (7)
19 S. Boufal
20 M. Gabbiadini
8 S. Davis
6 W. Hoedt
13 A. McCarthy
18 M. Lemina
26 J. Pied

Coach: M. Pellegrino

Arsenal

3-4-2-1
33 P. Čech G
4 P. Mertesacker D
18 Nacho Monreal D
6 L. Koscielny D
31 S. Kolašinac M
24 Bellerín M
11 M. Özil F
8 A. Ramsey M
29 G. Xhaka M
7 A. Sánchez F
9 A. Lacazette F
Bench (7)
23 D. Welbeck
10 J. Wilshere
12 O. Giroud
13 D. Ospina
17 A. Iwobi
30 A. Maitland-Niles
34 F. Coquelin

Coach: A. Wenger

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Robert Madley · 95 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
16,0 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.