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Premier League

Referee: Neil Swarbrick

Newcastle

T T T U T

2–3

Full-time

Leicester

U T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

2,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 30%

27%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

47%

40%

Both score Ø 50%

40%

60%

Average goals

2,4

2,7

Scored

0,9

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

37% Possession 63%

10 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 16. · Leicester 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	15	14	1	0	+36	43
2	Man United	15	11	2	2	+26	35
3	Chelsea	16	10	2	4	+15	32
4	Liverpool	15	8	5	2	+14	29
5	Tottenham	16	8	4	4	+14	28
6	Arsenal	15	9	1	5	+10	28
7	Burnley	16	8	4	4	+3	28
8	Watford	16	6	4	6	-2	22
9	Leicester	15	5	5	5	+0	20
10	Everton	15	5	3	7	-9	18
11	Huddersfield	16	5	3	8	-15	18
12	Southampton	15	4	5	6	-3	17
13	Brighton	16	4	5	7	-7	17
14	Bournemouth	16	4	4	8	-4	16
15	Stoke	16	4	4	8	-16	16
16	Newcastle	15	4	3	8	-8	15
17	West Brom	16	2	7	7	-10	13
18	West Ham	16	3	4	9	-18	13
19	Swansea	16	3	3	10	-9	12
20	Crystal Palace	16	2	5	9	-17	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	7	1	0	+22	22
2	Man United	7	7	0	0	+19	21
3	Arsenal	8	7	0	1	+14	21
4	Chelsea	8	5	1	2	+6	16
5	Liverpool	7	4	3	0	+11	15
6	Tottenham	8	4	3	1	+8	15
7	Everton	8	5	0	3	+2	15
8	Burnley	8	4	2	2	+3	14
9	Huddersfield	8	4	2	2	+0	14
10	Leicester	8	4	1	3	+2	13
11	Southampton	8	3	2	3	+1	11
12	Stoke	8	3	2	3	-5	11
13	Newcastle	7	3	1	3	-1	10
14	Brighton	8	2	4	2	-3	10
15	West Ham	7	3	1	3	-3	10
16	Crystal Palace	8	2	3	3	-4	9
17	Watford	8	2	3	3	-6	9
18	Bournemouth	8	2	2	4	+0	8
19	West Brom	8	1	5	2	-4	8
20	Swansea	8	2	1	5	-5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	7	0	0	+14	21
2	Chelsea	8	5	1	2	+9	16
3	Man United	8	4	2	2	+7	14
4	Liverpool	8	4	2	2	+3	14
5	Burnley	8	4	2	2	+0	14
6	Tottenham	8	4	1	3	+6	13
7	Watford	8	4	1	3	+4	13
8	Bournemouth	8	2	2	4	-4	8
9	Leicester	7	1	4	2	-2	7
10	Arsenal	7	2	1	4	-4	7
11	Brighton	8	2	1	5	-4	7
12	Southampton	7	1	3	3	-4	6
13	Swansea	8	1	2	5	-4	5
14	West Brom	8	1	2	5	-6	5
15	Newcastle	8	1	2	5	-7	5
16	Stoke	8	1	2	5	-11	5
17	Huddersfield	8	1	1	6	-15	4
18	Everton	7	0	3	4	-11	3
19	West Ham	9	0	3	6	-15	3
20	Crystal Palace	8	0	2	6	-13	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.