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Premier League
Referee: Kevin Friend
Bournemouth
T T U S U
2–1
Full-time
Arsenal
S U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bournemouth Arsenal
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,8
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,7
3,0
Scored
1,2
1,7
Conceded
2,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+0,3
This season — Premier League · 22/22 matches
Win Ø 37%
23%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
59%
55%
Both score Ø 48%
45%
50%
Average goals
2,5
3,1
Scored
1,0
1,8
Conceded
1,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

40% Possession 60%
13 Shots 12
5 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 5
0 Offside 4
8 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Bournemouth 17. · Arsenal 6.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man City 22 20 2 0 +51 62
2 Man United 22 14 5 3 +29 47
3 Chelsea 23 14 5 4 +25 47
4 Liverpool 22 12 8 2 +25 44
5 Tottenham 23 13 5 5 +25 44
6 Arsenal 22 11 6 5 +12 39
7 Burnley 23 9 7 7 -1 34
8 Leicester 23 8 7 8 +2 31
9 Everton 23 7 6 10 -13 27
10 Watford 23 7 5 11 -9 26
11 West Ham 23 6 7 10 -12 25
12 Crystal Palace 23 6 7 10 -12 25
13 Huddersfield 23 6 6 11 -20 24
14 Newcastle 23 6 5 12 -10 23
15 Brighton 23 5 8 10 -12 23
16 Southampton 23 4 9 10 -11 21
17 Bournemouth 22 5 6 11 -12 21
18 Stoke 22 5 5 12 -24 20
19 West Brom 23 3 10 10 -12 19
20 Swansea 23 4 5 14 -21 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Bournemouth Arsenal
Dan Gosling 🟨
21′
Simon Francis 🟨
31′
Half-time 0–1
52′
Bellerín 0–1
A. Iwobi
56′
🟨 Granit Xhaka
L. Mousset 🔁
↦ C. Daniels
63′
1–1 C. Wilson
R. Fraser
70′
71′
🟨 Jack Wilshere
74′
🔁 A. Ramsey
↦ C. Chambers
2–1 J. Ibe
C. Wilson
74′
76′
🔁 T. Walcott
↦ A. Iwobi
M. Pugh 🔁
↦ J. Ibe
86′
B. Afobe 🔁
↦ C. Wilson
91′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Bournemouth

3-4-2-1
27 A. Begović G
2 S. Francis D
11 C. Daniels M
15 A. Smith M
3 S. Cook D
5 N. Aké D
4 D. Gosling M
24 R. Fraser F
33 J. Ibe F
16 L. Cook M
13 C. Wilson F
Bench (7)
31 L. Mousset
7 M. Pugh
9 B. Afobe
1 A. Boruc
6 A. Surman
8 H. Arter
42 J. Simpson

Coach: E. Howe

Arsenal

3-4-2-1
33 P. Čech G
20 S. Mustafi D
21 C. Chambers D
24 Bellerín M
16 R. Holding D
10 J. Wilshere M
29 G. Xhaka M
17 A. Iwobi F
30 A. Maitland-Niles M
23 D. Welbeck F
9 A. Lacazette F
Bench (7)
8 A. Ramsey
14 T. Walcott
4 P. Mertesacker
13 D. Ospina
31 S. Kolašinac
35 Mohamed Elneny
62 E. Nketiah

Coach: A. Wenger

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Kevin Friend · 127 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
17,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.