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Premier League

Referee: Mike Dean

Brighton

T T U S U

4–1

Full-time

Swansea

U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 24%

22%

26%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

30%

37%

Both score Ø 37%

37%

Average goals

2,1

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%

16 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 5

3 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 14. · Swansea 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	27	23	3	1	+59	72
2	Man United	27	17	5	5	+32	56
3	Liverpool	27	15	9	3	+30	54
4	Chelsea	27	16	5	6	+26	53
5	Tottenham	27	15	7	5	+28	52
6	Arsenal	27	13	6	8	+15	45
7	Leicester	28	9	9	10	-1	36
8	Burnley	27	9	9	9	-3	36
9	Everton	27	9	7	11	-14	34
10	Bournemouth	27	8	7	12	-10	31
11	Watford	27	8	6	13	-10	30
12	West Ham	27	7	9	11	-12	30
13	Newcastle	27	7	7	13	-11	28
14	Brighton	27	6	10	11	-14	28
15	Crystal Palace	27	6	9	12	-17	27
16	Swansea	27	7	6	14	-17	27
17	Huddersfield	27	7	6	14	-24	27
18	Southampton	27	5	11	11	-12	26
19	Stoke	28	6	8	14	-26	26
20	West Brom	27	3	11	13	-19	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	14	13	1	0	+40	40
2	Man United	13	10	2	1	+24	32
3	Arsenal	13	10	2	1	+22	32
4	Tottenham	14	9	4	1	+20	31
5	Chelsea	14	9	2	3	+14	29
6	Liverpool	13	7	6	0	+18	27
7	Everton	14	8	2	4	+5	26
8	Leicester	14	6	4	4	+4	22
9	West Ham	13	5	4	4	-1	19
10	Stoke	14	5	4	5	-5	19
11	Huddersfield	14	5	4	5	-5	19
12	Bournemouth	13	5	3	5	-1	18
13	Burnley	13	5	3	5	-1	18
14	Brighton	13	4	6	3	-4	18
15	Crystal Palace	13	4	5	4	-3	17
16	Swansea	14	5	2	7	-7	17
17	Newcastle	14	4	4	6	-3	16
18	Watford	13	4	4	5	-6	16
19	Southampton	15	3	6	6	-5	15
20	West Brom	13	2	7	4	-4	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	10	2	1	+19	32
2	Liverpool	14	8	3	3	+12	27
3	Chelsea	13	7	3	3	+12	24
4	Man United	14	7	3	4	+8	24
5	Tottenham	13	6	3	4	+8	21
6	Burnley	14	4	6	4	-2	18
7	Watford	14	4	2	8	-4	14
8	Leicester	14	3	5	6	-5	14
9	Arsenal	14	3	4	7	-7	13
10	Bournemouth	14	3	4	7	-9	13
11	Newcastle	13	3	3	7	-8	12
12	Southampton	12	2	5	5	-7	11
13	West Ham	14	2	5	7	-11	11
14	Swansea	13	2	4	7	-10	10
15	Brighton	14	2	4	8	-10	10
16	Crystal Palace	14	2	4	8	-14	10
17	Everton	13	1	5	7	-19	8
18	Huddersfield	13	2	2	9	-19	8
19	West Brom	14	1	4	9	-15	7
20	Stoke	14	1	4	9	-21	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.