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Premier League
Referee: Graham Scott
Newcastle
T S T U S
1–1
Full-time
Swansea
T U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Swansea
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,2
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
17%
67%
Both score Ø 34%
17%
50%
Average goals
1,5
3,3
Scored
0,7
0,7
Conceded
0,8
2,7
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-2,0
This season — Premier League · 22/22 matches
Win Ø 23%
27%
18%
Points per game
1,0
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 41%
41%
41%
Both score Ø 34%
36%
32%
Average goals
2,3
2,1
Scored
0,9
0,6
Conceded
1,4
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

42% Possession 58%
12 Shots 8
4 Shots on target 5
1 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 5
2 Offside 0
11 Free kicks against 10
0 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Newcastle 13. · Swansea 20.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man City 22 20 2 0 +51 62
2 Man United 22 14 5 3 +29 47
3 Chelsea 22 14 4 4 +25 46
4 Liverpool 22 12 8 2 +25 44
5 Tottenham 22 12 5 5 +21 41
6 Arsenal 22 11 6 5 +12 39
7 Burnley 22 9 7 6 +0 34
8 Leicester 22 8 6 8 +2 30
9 Everton 22 7 6 9 -9 27
10 Watford 22 7 4 11 -9 25
11 Huddersfield 22 6 6 10 -17 24
12 Brighton 22 5 8 9 -10 23
13 Newcastle 22 6 4 12 -10 22
14 Crystal Palace 22 5 7 10 -13 22
15 West Ham 22 5 7 10 -15 22
16 Bournemouth 22 5 6 11 -12 21
17 Southampton 22 4 8 10 -11 20
18 Stoke 22 5 5 12 -24 20
19 West Brom 22 2 10 10 -14 16
20 Swansea 22 4 4 14 -21 16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Newcastle Swansea
10′
🟨 Kyle Bartley
Half-time 0–1
60′
J. Ayew 0–1
Joselu 🔁
↦ D. Gayle
64′
65′
🔁 C. Roberts
↦ M. van der Hoorn
1–1 Joselu
68′
71′
🔁 W. Bony
↦ O. McBurnie
82′
🟨 Alfie Mawson
Mikel Merino 🔁
↦ J. Shelvey
82′
85′
🔁 L. Narsingh
↦ N. Dyer
90′
🟨 Jordan Ayew
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Newcastle

4-2-3-1
26 K. Darlow G
2 C. Clark D
6 J. Lascelles D
3 P. Dummett D
22 D. Yedlin D
8 J. Shelvey M
10 M. Diamé M
11 M. Ritchie M
30 C. Atsu M
9 D. Gayle F
17 Ayoze Pérez M
Bench (7)
21 Joselu
23 Mikel Merino
1 R. Elliot
7 Jacob Murphy
14 I. Hayden
19 Javi Manquillo
25 M. Haïdara

Coach: Rafael Benítez

Swansea

4-4-2
1 Ł. Fabiański G
16 Martin Olsson D
27 K. Bartley D
5 M. van der Hoorn D
6 A. Mawson D
12 N. Dyer M
4 Ki Sung-Yeung M
17 S. Clucas M
14 T. Carroll M
18 J. Ayew F
62 O. McBurnie F
Bench (7)
52 C. Roberts
2 W. Bony
11 L. Narsingh
8 L. Fer
13 K. Nordfeldt
33 F. Fernández
51 Roque Mesa

Coach: Carlos Carvalhal

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Graham Scott · 99 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,9 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
18,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.