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La Liga

Referee: Javier Estrada Fernandez

Real Madrid

S U S S S

4–0

Full-time

Alaves

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Alaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

6,0

2,5

Scored

4,3

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,7

+0,5

This season — La Liga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 48%

58%

38%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

75%

42%

Both score Ø 48%

58%

38%

Average goals

3,5

2,3

Scored

2,4

0,9

Conceded

1,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

63% Possession 37%

24 Shots 11

10 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 6

9 Corners 5

3 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 3. · Alaves 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	24	19	5	0	+51	62
2	Ath Madrid	24	16	7	1	+27	55
3	Real Madrid	24	14	6	4	+31	48
4	Valencia	24	14	4	6	+19	46
5	Sevilla	24	12	3	9	-4	39
6	Villarreal	24	11	5	8	+6	38
7	Celta	25	10	5	10	+6	35
8	Eibar	25	10	5	10	-6	35
9	Girona	24	9	7	8	+4	34
10	Getafe	24	8	9	7	+8	33
11	Betis	24	10	3	11	-9	33
12	Sociedad	24	8	5	11	+1	29
13	Leganes	24	8	5	11	-7	29
14	Ath Bilbao	24	6	10	8	-3	28
15	Espanol	25	6	10	9	-10	28
16	Alaves	24	9	1	14	-11	28
17	Levante	24	3	11	10	-17	20
18	La Coruna	25	4	6	15	-29	18
19	Las Palmas	24	5	3	16	-34	18
20	Malaga	24	3	4	17	-23	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	11	9	2	0	+26	29
2	Ath Madrid	12	8	4	0	+13	28
3	Valencia	12	8	2	2	+14	26
4	Getafe	13	7	3	3	+12	24
5	Sevilla	11	7	3	1	+9	24
6	Real Madrid	12	7	2	3	+18	23
7	Eibar	13	6	3	4	+8	21
8	Villarreal	11	6	2	3	+10	20
9	Girona	12	6	2	4	+8	20
10	Betis	13	6	2	5	-3	20
11	Celta	12	5	4	3	+4	19
12	Espanol	13	5	4	4	+0	19
13	Alaves	13	6	1	6	-3	19
14	Sociedad	13	5	3	5	+7	18
15	Leganes	11	5	2	4	-1	17
16	Ath Bilbao	11	3	6	2	+2	15
17	Las Palmas	12	4	1	7	-11	13
18	La Coruna	13	3	3	7	-8	12
19	Levante	12	2	5	5	-6	11
20	Malaga	12	2	3	7	-8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	13	10	3	0	+25	33
2	Ath Madrid	12	8	3	1	+14	27
3	Real Madrid	12	7	4	1	+13	25
4	Valencia	12	6	2	4	+5	20
5	Villarreal	13	5	3	5	-4	18
6	Celta	13	5	1	7	+2	16
7	Sevilla	13	5	0	8	-13	15
8	Girona	12	3	5	4	-4	14
9	Eibar	12	4	2	6	-14	14
10	Ath Bilbao	13	3	4	6	-5	13
11	Betis	11	4	1	6	-6	13
12	Leganes	13	3	3	7	-6	12
13	Sociedad	11	3	2	6	-6	11
14	Getafe	11	1	6	4	-4	9
15	Alaves	11	3	0	8	-8	9
16	Espanol	12	1	6	5	-10	9
17	Levante	12	1	6	5	-11	9
18	La Coruna	12	1	3	8	-21	6
19	Las Palmas	12	1	2	9	-23	5
20	Malaga	12	1	1	10	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.