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Premier League

Referee: Mike Dean

Watford

T S S S S

1–2

Full-time

Man United

S S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,0

This season — Premier League · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

75%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

2,3

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

42% Possession 58%

14 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 8

2 Offside 4

9 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Watford 4. · Man United 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	5	5	0	0	+10	15
2	Liverpool	5	5	0	0	+9	15
3	Man City	5	4	1	0	+11	13
4	Watford	4	4	0	0	+6	12
5	Bournemouth	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Tottenham	5	3	0	2	+4	9
7	Arsenal	5	3	0	2	+1	9
8	Everton	4	1	3	0	+1	6
9	Leicester	5	2	0	3	-1	6
10	Man United	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Crystal Palace	5	2	0	3	-2	6
12	Wolves	4	1	2	1	-1	5
13	Southampton	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Brighton	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Fulham	5	1	1	3	-5	4
16	Cardiff	5	0	2	3	-6	2
17	Huddersfield	5	0	2	3	-9	2
18	Newcastle	5	0	1	4	-4	1
19	Burnley	4	0	1	3	-6	1
20	West Ham	4	0	0	4	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+9	9
2	Chelsea	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Watford	3	3	0	0	+4	9
4	Bournemouth	3	2	1	0	+4	7
5	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
6	Brighton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Everton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Tottenham	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Leicester	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Fulham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Man United	2	1	0	1	-2	3
13	Wolves	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Cardiff	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Southampton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Huddersfield	3	0	1	2	-4	1
17	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Newcastle	3	0	0	3	-3	0
19	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	Crystal Palace	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Tottenham	3	2	0	1	+3	6
4	Crystal Palace	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Man City	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Watford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Man United	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Southampton	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Wolves	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Leicester	3	1	0	2	-2	3
13	Everton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Newcastle	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Burnley	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Fulham	3	0	1	2	-5	1
17	Huddersfield	2	0	1	1	-5	1
18	Cardiff	3	0	1	2	-5	1
19	Brighton	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.