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Premier League

Referee: Paul Tierney

Watford

S T U T T

1–2

Full-time

Man City

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

33%

100%

Points per game

1,2

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,2

4,2

Scored

1,0

3,7

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+3,2

This season — Premier League · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 65%

43%

86%

Points per game

1,4

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

50%

64%

Both score Ø 43%

43%

Average goals

2,6

3,5

Scored

1,2

3,1

Conceded

1,4

0,4

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+2,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

29% Possession 71%

11 Shots 15

7 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 11

4 Offside 6

4 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 11. · Man City 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	14	12	2	0	+37	38
2	Liverpool	14	11	3	0	+22	36
3	Chelsea	14	9	4	1	+19	31
4	Arsenal	14	9	3	2	+14	30
5	Tottenham	14	10	0	4	+10	30
6	Bournemouth	15	7	2	6	+3	23
7	Everton	14	6	4	4	+4	22
8	Man United	14	6	4	4	-1	22
9	Leicester	14	6	3	5	+3	21
10	Brighton	15	6	3	6	-2	21
11	Watford	14	6	2	6	-2	20
12	West Ham	15	5	3	7	-3	18
13	Wolves	14	4	4	6	-4	16
14	Newcastle	14	3	3	8	-8	12
15	Crystal Palace	15	3	3	9	-9	12
16	Cardiff	15	3	2	10	-16	11
17	Huddersfield	15	2	4	9	-16	10
18	Southampton	14	1	6	7	-14	9
19	Burnley	14	2	3	9	-16	9
20	Fulham	14	2	2	10	-21	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	8	0	0	+25	24
2	Liverpool	7	6	1	0	+14	19
3	Chelsea	8	5	3	0	+10	18
4	Arsenal	8	5	2	1	+8	17
5	Everton	7	5	1	1	+7	16
6	Bournemouth	8	4	2	2	+4	14
7	Brighton	7	4	2	1	+4	14
8	Watford	7	4	0	3	-1	12
9	Leicester	7	3	2	2	+4	11
10	Man United	6	3	2	1	+0	11
11	West Ham	8	3	1	4	-1	10
12	Cardiff	8	3	1	4	-4	10
13	Tottenham	5	3	0	2	+3	9
14	Wolves	7	2	2	3	-2	8
15	Fulham	6	2	1	3	-6	7
16	Newcastle	8	2	0	6	-7	6
17	Southampton	7	0	5	2	-4	5
18	Crystal Palace	7	1	2	4	-4	5
19	Huddersfield	8	1	2	5	-7	5
20	Burnley	6	1	1	4	-5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	9	7	0	2	+7	21
2	Liverpool	7	5	2	0	+8	17
3	Man City	6	4	2	0	+12	14
4	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+9	13
5	Arsenal	6	4	1	1	+6	13
6	Man United	8	3	2	3	-1	11
7	Leicester	7	3	1	3	-1	10
8	Bournemouth	7	3	0	4	-1	9
9	Watford	7	2	2	3	-1	8
10	West Ham	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Wolves	7	2	2	3	-2	8
12	Crystal Palace	8	2	1	5	-5	7
13	Brighton	8	2	1	5	-6	7
14	Newcastle	6	1	3	2	-1	6
15	Everton	7	1	3	3	-3	6
16	Huddersfield	7	1	2	4	-9	5
17	Burnley	8	1	2	5	-11	5
18	Southampton	7	1	1	5	-10	4
19	Cardiff	7	0	1	6	-12	1
20	Fulham	8	0	1	7	-15	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.