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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Man City

S U S S S

3–1

Full-time

Man United

T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

17%

100%

Average goals

3,3

3,5

Scored

3,2

1,8

Conceded

0,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+3,0

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 69%

82%

55%

Points per game

2,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

55%

82%

Both score Ø 59%

36%

82%

Average goals

3,4

Scored

3,0

1,7

Conceded

0,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

+2,6

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

64% Possession 36%

17 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 1

12 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 2. · Man United 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	12	9	3	0	+18	30
2	Man City	11	9	2	0	+29	29
3	Chelsea	12	8	4	0	+19	28
4	Tottenham	12	9	0	3	+10	27
5	Arsenal	11	7	2	2	+11	23
6	Bournemouth	12	6	2	4	+5	20
7	Watford	12	6	2	4	+3	20
8	Man United	11	6	2	3	+1	20
9	Everton	12	5	4	3	+4	19
10	Leicester	12	5	2	5	+1	17
11	Wolves	11	4	3	4	-1	15
12	Brighton	12	4	2	6	-5	14
13	West Ham	12	3	3	6	-4	12
14	Newcastle	12	2	3	7	-6	9
15	Burnley	12	2	3	7	-13	9
16	Crystal Palace	12	2	2	8	-9	8
17	Southampton	12	1	5	6	-13	8
18	Cardiff	12	2	2	8	-14	8
19	Huddersfield	12	1	4	7	-16	7
20	Fulham	12	1	2	9	-20	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	6	6	0	0	+21	18
2	Liverpool	6	5	1	0	+13	16
3	Chelsea	7	4	3	0	+8	15
4	Everton	6	4	1	1	+6	13
5	Arsenal	6	4	1	1	+6	13
6	Watford	6	4	0	2	+2	12
7	Bournemouth	6	3	2	1	+4	11
8	Brighton	5	3	1	1	+2	10
9	Man United	5	3	1	1	+0	10
10	Leicester	6	2	2	2	+2	8
11	Wolves	6	2	2	2	+0	8
12	West Ham	6	2	1	3	+1	7
13	Cardiff	7	2	1	4	-5	7
14	Tottenham	4	2	0	2	+1	6
15	Newcastle	7	2	0	5	-4	6
16	Huddersfield	7	1	2	4	-6	5
17	Burnley	5	1	1	3	-4	4
18	Southampton	6	0	4	2	-4	4
19	Fulham	5	1	1	3	-7	4
20	Crystal Palace	6	0	2	4	-6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	8	7	0	1	+9	21
2	Liverpool	6	4	2	0	+5	14
3	Chelsea	5	4	1	0	+11	13
4	Man City	5	3	2	0	+8	11
5	Arsenal	5	3	1	1	+5	10
6	Man United	6	3	1	2	+1	10
7	Bournemouth	6	3	0	3	+1	9
8	Leicester	6	3	0	3	-1	9
9	Watford	6	2	2	2	+1	8
10	Wolves	5	2	1	2	-1	7
11	Everton	6	1	3	2	-2	6
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	0	4	-3	6
13	West Ham	6	1	2	3	-5	5
14	Burnley	7	1	2	4	-9	5
15	Brighton	7	1	1	5	-7	4
16	Southampton	6	1	1	4	-9	4
17	Newcastle	5	0	3	2	-2	3
18	Huddersfield	5	0	2	3	-10	2
19	Cardiff	5	0	1	4	-9	1
20	Fulham	7	0	1	6	-13	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.