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Premier League

Referee: Mike Dean

Arsenal

U T S T S

2–1

Full-time

Cardiff

U S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

1,8

0,3

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,5

This season — Premier League · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 40%

57%

22%

Points per game

1,9

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

61%

57%

Both score Ø 59%

74%

43%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

2,1

0,8

Conceded

1,4

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

70% Possession 30%

15 Shots 19

4 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 8

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 7

0 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 5. · Cardiff 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	23	19	3	1	+41	60
2	Man City	23	18	2	3	+45	56
3	Tottenham	23	17	0	6	+25	51
4	Chelsea	23	14	5	4	+21	47
5	Arsenal	23	13	5	5	+16	44
6	Man United	23	13	5	5	+13	44
7	Watford	23	9	6	8	+0	33
8	Wolves	23	9	5	9	-4	32
9	Leicester	23	9	4	10	+0	31
10	West Ham	23	9	4	10	-4	31
11	Everton	23	8	6	9	+1	30
12	Bournemouth	23	9	3	11	-9	30
13	Brighton	23	7	5	11	-7	26
14	Crystal Palace	23	6	4	13	-9	22
15	Southampton	23	5	7	11	-15	22
16	Burnley	23	6	4	13	-20	22
17	Newcastle	23	5	6	12	-12	21
18	Cardiff	23	5	4	14	-25	19
19	Fulham	23	3	5	15	-30	14
20	Huddersfield	23	2	5	16	-27	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	11	0	1	+30	33
2	Liverpool	11	10	1	0	+25	31
3	Arsenal	12	9	2	1	+16	29
4	Chelsea	12	7	4	1	+12	25
5	Man United	11	7	3	1	+9	24
6	Bournemouth	12	6	3	3	+4	21
7	Everton	12	6	3	3	+4	21
8	Tottenham	10	6	0	4	+8	18
9	Brighton	11	5	3	3	+3	18
10	West Ham	12	5	2	5	-1	17
11	Watford	12	5	2	5	-2	17
12	Wolves	12	5	2	5	-2	17
13	Leicester	11	4	2	5	+1	14
14	Cardiff	12	4	2	6	-10	14
15	Burnley	11	4	1	6	-7	13
16	Fulham	11	3	3	5	-8	12
17	Southampton	11	2	5	4	-5	11
18	Newcastle	12	3	1	8	-7	10
19	Crystal Palace	11	2	3	6	-5	9
20	Huddersfield	12	1	2	9	-14	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	13	11	0	2	+17	33
2	Liverpool	12	9	2	1	+16	29
3	Man City	11	7	2	2	+15	23
4	Chelsea	11	7	1	3	+9	22
5	Man United	12	6	2	4	+4	20
6	Leicester	12	5	2	5	-1	17
7	Watford	11	4	4	3	+2	16
8	Arsenal	11	4	3	4	+0	15
9	Wolves	11	4	3	4	-2	15
10	West Ham	11	4	2	5	-3	14
11	Crystal Palace	12	4	1	7	-4	13
12	Newcastle	11	2	5	4	-5	11
13	Southampton	12	3	2	7	-10	11
14	Everton	11	2	3	6	-3	9
15	Bournemouth	11	3	0	8	-13	9
16	Burnley	12	2	3	7	-13	9
17	Brighton	12	2	2	8	-10	8
18	Huddersfield	11	1	3	7	-13	6
19	Cardiff	11	1	2	8	-15	5
20	Fulham	12	0	2	10	-22	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.