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Premier League

Referee: Paul Tierney

Newcastle

T U T T S

2–1

Full-time

Man City

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,5

Scored

0,8

2,3

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,2

This season — Premier League · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 50%

22%

78%

Points per game

0,9

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

52%

74%

Both score Ø 50%

48%

52%

Average goals

2,2

3,4

Scored

0,8

2,7

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

23% Possession 77%

7 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

1 Corners 8

2 Offside 5

9 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 17. · Man City 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	23	19	3	1	+41	60
2	Man City	23	18	2	3	+45	56
3	Tottenham	23	17	0	6	+25	51
4	Chelsea	23	14	5	4	+21	47
5	Arsenal	24	14	5	5	+17	47
6	Man United	23	13	5	5	+13	44
7	Wolves	24	10	5	9	-1	35
8	Everton	24	9	6	9	+2	33
9	Watford	23	9	6	8	+0	33
10	Leicester	23	9	4	10	+0	31
11	West Ham	24	9	4	11	-7	31
12	Bournemouth	23	9	3	11	-9	30
13	Brighton	24	7	5	12	-9	26
14	Crystal Palace	23	6	4	13	-9	22
15	Southampton	23	5	7	11	-15	22
16	Burnley	23	6	4	13	-20	22
17	Newcastle	23	5	6	12	-12	21
18	Cardiff	24	5	4	15	-26	19
19	Fulham	24	4	5	15	-28	17
20	Huddersfield	24	2	5	17	-28	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	11	0	1	+30	33
2	Arsenal	13	10	2	1	+17	32
3	Liverpool	11	10	1	0	+25	31
4	Chelsea	12	7	4	1	+12	25
5	Man United	11	7	3	1	+9	24
6	Bournemouth	12	6	3	3	+4	21
7	Everton	12	6	3	3	+4	21
8	Wolves	13	6	2	5	+1	20
9	Tottenham	10	6	0	4	+8	18
10	Brighton	11	5	3	3	+3	18
11	West Ham	12	5	2	5	-1	17
12	Watford	12	5	2	5	-2	17
13	Fulham	12	4	3	5	-6	15
14	Leicester	11	4	2	5	+1	14
15	Cardiff	12	4	2	6	-10	14
16	Burnley	11	4	1	6	-7	13
17	Southampton	11	2	5	4	-5	11
18	Newcastle	12	3	1	8	-7	10
19	Crystal Palace	11	2	3	6	-5	9
20	Huddersfield	13	1	2	10	-15	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	13	11	0	2	+17	33
2	Liverpool	12	9	2	1	+16	29
3	Man City	11	7	2	2	+15	23
4	Chelsea	11	7	1	3	+9	22
5	Man United	12	6	2	4	+4	20
6	Leicester	12	5	2	5	-1	17
7	Watford	11	4	4	3	+2	16
8	Arsenal	11	4	3	4	+0	15
9	Wolves	11	4	3	4	-2	15
10	West Ham	12	4	2	6	-6	14
11	Crystal Palace	12	4	1	7	-4	13
12	Everton	12	3	3	6	-2	12
13	Newcastle	11	2	5	4	-5	11
14	Southampton	12	3	2	7	-10	11
15	Bournemouth	11	3	0	8	-13	9
16	Burnley	12	2	3	7	-13	9
17	Brighton	13	2	2	9	-12	8
18	Huddersfield	11	1	3	7	-13	6
19	Cardiff	12	1	2	9	-16	5
20	Fulham	12	0	2	10	-22	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.